Tehran Walks a Tactical Tightrope

The Financial Times

Iran has been walking a tightrope in Iraq, juggling strategic support for a friendly Shia-dominated government in Baghdad with the tactical objective of complicating the US military presence and denying the Bush administration any semblance of victory.

Alleged Iran support for radical Shia groups in Iraq has put Tehran on a collision course with Washington.

General David Petraeus, the US commander, told a US congressional hearing this week that Iran was trying to turn Shia extremists belonging to the so-called "Iraqi special groups" into a force similar to Lebanon's Hizbollah, the highly organised and disciplined Iranian-backed militant group.

Tehran responded yesterday when Ali Larijani, the regime's senior security official, criticised the testimony of both Gen Petraeus and Ryan Crocker, the US ambassador to Baghdad, saying they failed to portray the "real image" in Iraq. Mr Lari-jani also blamed "US allies in the region who send their terrorists to Iraq" for fuelling the insurgency.

But Muwaffaq al-Rubaie, Iraq's national security adviser and a Shia politician, also said yesterday that Iran should do more to stabilise Iraq. "The Iranians know well what they should do and [what] they are doing in supporting the militias, in smuggling weapons and supporting some extremists."

There is little doubt that Iran has benefited from the removal of Saddam Hussein. Before the 2003 invasion, Tehran hosted in exile many of the Iraqi Shia and Kurdish leaders now in government in Baghdad. "Regime change" in Iraq has also boosted Iran's regional standing.

Yet Iran remains worried about US and Arab designs for Iraq. Officials speak of nightmare scenarios, perceived to be promoted by the US and Saudi Arabia, which they suspect of backing radical Sunni elements in Iraq - a charge that the Saudis deny. They include imposing, once again, a Sunni regime in Iraq andengineering regime change in Tehran too.

But although Iran repeatedly calls for a US withdrawal from Iraq, it also recognises the risks involved in a precipitous exit. A political analyst in Tehran says a US withdrawal could lead to a more direct confrontation between Tehran and Arab states, which would have to intervene more strongly in support of their Sunni -proxies.