Bush to strike Iran as he leaves

turkishdailynews.com

Will the United States strike Iran, or rather, will George W. Bush strike Iran, because U.S. presidential elections will be held in November and either the Republican candidate, John McCain, or the Democrat, Barack Obama, will be the new president of the United States. The general opinion was that Bush wouldn't hit Iran as he leaves, but the signals coming from the United States say the opposite.

Neocons, led by Vice President Dick Cheney, are eager to hit Iran, and that is not a secret anymore.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice put her mark on U.S. foreign policy via Bush and we know that, contrary to Cheney and his team, Rice prefers using diplomatic channels with Iran in spite of everything. In fact, she supported proposals developed by the “5+1” -- five U.N. Security Council members and Germany.

Iran's tactic

But there is a little known fact which even Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad skipped. That is that Rice inclines towards hitting Iran as a last resort if the Iranian uranium enrichment program is not suspended within six weeks, as Iran is waiting for the result of the presidential elections, thereby using diplomatic initiatives as a delaying tactic.

How do I know that?

I had a chance to have a long conversation with an American top official last week. This person is not a fan of the Cheney group but is close to Rice and her team.

“Ahmadinejad is making the mistake of his life by applying the delay tactic,” the authority said.

1-The United States, not protecting Georgia against Russia, can never strike Iran.

2- There are elections in November and Obama, who previously announced that he may sit for negotiations with Iran, will win the race. Within this process, Bush cannot intervene in Iran.

“In both issues Ahmadinejad has never understood the United States and this will cost him a lot,” said the American official, adding that Rice knows that if no result is obtained, which seems likely, intervention in Iran is inevitable.

In the meantime, the Turkish Daily News' Barçın Yinanç shared a piece of crucial information in daily Referans' weekend edition that I had heard some time ago and confirmed from its source recently.

According to Yinanç, the following dialogue took place between Ahmadinejad and Turkish President Abdullah Gül during the Iranian leader's trip to Istanbul last week:

Gül: The European Union has become part of negotiations about your nuclear program. Don't complain. The offer made has some positive elements. Make a good evaluation over the next six weeks.

Ahmadinejad: We cannot reach a decision in six weeks.

Gül: Yes, you can. Don't waste this opportunity.

Ahmadinejad: We do not accept suspension of our nuclear program.

Gül: Instead of suspension, some other formula can be found. But you should give an affirmative response. Do not rely on the election process and Obama's being the winner. On the contrary, groups supporting the use of a military option may convince the Bush administration before Obama comes to power.

Everyone was asking last week why Turkey needed this visit and allowed a show of Ahmadinejad. That's true indeed. Ahmadinejad came over, made his show and then left.

But what did Turkey gain?

It was clear that the energy agreements could not be signed because the United States is against a blanket energy deal between Iran and Turkey. Even moreso, the Rice group communicated with Turkey about a possible strike against Iranian nuclear facilities during the election period.

That (the message from the Rice team) pushed Gül and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to have one last conversation with Ahmadinejad, even though they knew that Ahmadinejad would steal the show.

Turkey definitely does not want a new war in the region.

AKP doesn't want new crisis with the U.S

The Justice and Development Party, or AKP, government is not willing to have another test in bilateral relations with the United States that were damaged through the Iraq war.

For this reason, Turkey tries diplomatic channels valiantly and this is why Ahmadinejad was invited over during such a critical period.

Turkey has, unfortunately, no other choice but to say, “We warned you before,” to Iran after a possible U.S. strike.

And, unfortunately again, a strike against Iran by Bush before he leaves seems inevitable.