Iran Confrontation Coming

forbes.com

After four years of intense but ineffective diplomacy Israel and the U.S. will soon decide whether or not the murderous mullahs of Iran will get the bomb. Steps short of war are still possible, but time is running out. Iran is heavily dependent on gasoline imports. A blockade would quickly bring the enfeebled Iranian economy to its knees. Unemployment is high, and not even burgeoning oil revenue is enough to buy off the populace. Even the French oil company Total is pulling out.

Israeli intelligence believes Tehran will have a nuclear device by the end of 2009. Our own intelligence puts the date between 2010 and 2015. Iran's recent missile tests demonstrate that it is fully capable of delivering the bomb anywhere in Europe. By using a ship Iran could easily lob one into the U.S. Most of Europe, Russia and China, as well as our own State Department, think the world should learn to live with a nuclear-armed Iran, even one run by bloodthirsty zealots. After all, the Islamic fascists' real target is not them but Israel.

The problem for Israel is acute. One or two nuclear weapons could virtually wipe out its population. Israel does not have an effective missile defense system, either for ballistic missiles or Hezbollah rockets fired from Lebanon. Moreover, next year the Russians will be delivering an antiaircraft system to Iran that, when operational, will pose real problems for Israeli bombers.

If Senator Barack Obama wins the presidential election in November, the Israelis will feel intense pressure to act before he takes the oath of office in January. If Senator John McCain wins, the Israelis may feel there are a few more months before an irrevocable decision must be made. McCain might well have the fortitude to impose a blockade, but Obama certainly will not. The odds that President Bush will have the U.S. destroy Iran's nuclear facilities are almost nil.

Unless there is a regime change in Iran (the army may decide to take matters into its own hands) or, miraculously, the clerical extremists decide to give up their nuclear ambitions, the Israelis will strike. The war will be ugly. It will take several days of strikes to truly damage Iran's nuclear facilities. And Iran will launch retaliatory missiles against Israel.

Worse, the Israelis will be battling on several fronts. In 2006, when Israel invaded Lebanon to neutralize Iran-supported Hezbollah, that fanatical army had about 14,000 rockets. Today Hezbollah has some 40,000 rockets. In 2006 Hezbollah fired off thousands of rockets into Israel. While the casualties were few, the disruptions were many, as more than 200,000 Israelis moved to the south of the country. This time there will be many more disruptions and casualties. Hamas, which rules Gaza and has great influence over much of the other Palestinian territories, will also fire rockets into Israel, as well as try to send in suicide bombers. Iran will put pressure on its semisatellite, Syria, to fight Israel--which is why the Israeli government has been working overtime to see if it can reach a peace agreement with Damascus.

The impact on the rest of the world will be severe, as Iran will--at least temporarily--block shipments of oil from Iraq and the other Gulf states by firing missiles at tankers.

Will Washington be better prepared for what may happen between Israel and Iran than it has been for the credit crisis?