Iran tightens screws on Iraq's Kurds

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By Sami Moubayed

DAMASCUS - On the eve of the holy Muslim month of Ramadan in 1959, Iraq's military head of state Abdul-Karim Qasim toured the streets of Baghdad by night, inspecting preparations. He stopped at a baker slaving at his oven, only to find a huge portrait of himself, surrounded by much smaller loafs of bread. Qasim was shocked.

He instructed the baker to take down the picture, saying, "It is inconceivable that my photograph would be larger than a loaf of Iraqi bread - the daily fuel of ordinary Iraqis. Remove it immediately; that is an order."

Many Iraqis still remember the days of Abdul-Karim Qasim, only too well, and find that such humbleness is non-existent in current

Iraqi leaders. Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki did not roam the streets of Baghdad last night, as his countrymen were preparing to welcome Ramadan. One obvious reason is security; another is a lack of character, and interest in the affairs of day-to-day Iraqis. Had he taken the journey it is doubtful he would have found a portrait of himself larger than the size of a loaf of bread.

Under Qasim, survival was not the only pre-occupation of ordinary Iraqis. They used the festive month, known to Muslims as a month of peace, to dine with friends at restaurants, meet with family, listen to Oriental music, and go out for family walks after breaking their fast at sunset. Maliki did however speak to his countrymen on the eve of this Ramadan, which started on September 1, saying, "Ramadan comes at a time when the Iraqis have earned the result of their patience and victory on terrorists, criminals and outlaws. The success of our forces to enforce the law is helping in the return of thousands of Iraqis to their country and homes. There is progress in security and peace."

Some people claimed this was not the best choice of words for someone trying to promote peace. The Human Rights Committee of the Iraqi parliament lashed out at Maliki, accusing him of failing to implement a general amnesty (which it had issued earlier this year) on the eve of Ramadan. There are over 100,000 prisoners in Maliki's jails, said one lawmaker, and another 20,000 in US jails within Iraq, a difficult reality that the premier cannot escape and which kills any hopes of rapprochement between Sunnis and Shi'ites.

Covering up for this flaw, Maliki starting retaking control of Anbar province (the largest in Iraq), one of the most violent, from the US military on Monday. Anbar is the 11th of 18 provinces to have been handed over to the Maliki administration and, according to the US military, is an "important milestone with regard to security".

Kurds, Iranians and Talabani
On another note, an article ran on the first day of Ramadan in the Iraqi daily al-Zaman (which usually has credible reports), making the prime minister look silly.

It claimed that a senior meeting had recently been held in Tehran to discuss the deteriorating health of Iraqi President Jalal Talabani. Attended by representatives of Iran's Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the meeting concentrated on whether Talabani, 75, who is undergoing surgery in the US, will return to his full capacities at the presidency. If Talabani departs the scene or becomes incapacitated, since his health is "critical", the Iranians will lose a strong ally in the Iraqi Kurdish community, which at present is at odds with Iraq's Shi'ites, led by Maliki.

Talabani, a veteran politician who worked in the Iraqi underground from the 1960s, was one of the few Kurdish leaders to have excellent relations with Iraq's Shi'ites. A credible statesman whose nationalism cuts across confessional lines, he was also one of the architects of a four-party alliance created in 2007 between two Kurdish parties (one headed by him personally), the Da'wa party of Maliki and the Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council (SIIC), headed by Iran's ally Abdul Aziz al-Hakim.

That alliance was created, under Iranian urging, to legitimize the Maliki government when both the Iraqi Accordance Front (Sunni) and Sadrists (Shi'ites) walked out on the prime minister in 2007. Maliki (and Iran) lured the Kurds by promising them action on Kirkuk, a mixed city that they want to incorporate into Iraqi Kurdistan. He promised to implement Article 140 of the Iraqi constitution, which calls for a referendum in Kirkuk, to see whether its population wants to remain part of Iraq, or join Kurdistan.

Before doing that he made sure that thousands of Iraqi Arabs were uprooted from Kirkuk (to increase its Kurdish population) , claiming they had illegally been placed there under Saddam Hussein, for the exact opposite reason. The referendum was supposed to take place by December 31, 2007. It did not, resulting in Kurdish resentment against the prime minister and increased speculation that the four-party alliance that managed to keep Iran's Maliki in power since 2007, was falling apart.

Another reason for the Kurdish-Shi'ite dispute is a recent military crackdown, under orders from Maliki, on Khanaqin, a town in northern Diyali province that is filled with Kurds loyal to Iraqi Kurdistan. Government troops want to evacuate the Kurdish militia, the Peshmerga, from Khanaqin and evacuate buildings currently occupied by two Kurdish parties, claiming they are the property of the central government in Baghdad.

Many believe the crackdown is a message from Iran to the Kurdish parties in parliament, with Kurdish lawmaker Mahmud Othman saying, "With no doubt, the Iranians have a role in the Khanaqin crisis." He is critical of Iran's proxy in Iraq, the SIIC and its leader Hakim, adding that he never supported the four-party alliance between the Kurdish parties, the SIIC and Maliki's Da'wa Party. Speaking on behalf of the government, Maliki's advisor, Sami al-Askari, said, "The government insists on its position: withdrawal of the Peshmerga from Khanaqin."

The Peshmerga, which runs Iraqi Kurdistan, was long tolerated by the Maliki government, at a time when relations were flowery between Maliki and the Kurds. Showing just how sour matters have become, Askari spoke about the Kurdish-Shi'ite four-party alliance, saying, "This alliance cannot survive at the expense of the unity of Iraq and its government." According to parliamentarian Humam Hamudi of the SIIC, Maliki escalated the crisis by threatening the Peshmerga with severe punishment if it was found within Iraqi territory.

Back to the Iranian meeting, al-Zaman claims that Tehran is interested in weakening the Kurdish bloc in parliament (in the absence of Talabani) and transforming it into a dwarf so that it doesn't threaten the supremacy of the pro-Iranian Shi'ite bloc, the United Iraqi Alliance. Iran does not want to break the Kurdish bloc, however, nor does it want to eject it from parliament, unless rapprochement with Iraqi Sunnis is made, to serve as a substitute ally for Maliki.

Taming the Kurds will take place through direct measures, as the crackdown in Khanaqin, or indirect ones, such as getting the prime minister to further delay the issue of Kirkuk.

The Iranians are furious that talks with the Americans over a long-term military pact between Washington and Baghdad are being handled by Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari, a Kurd. Tehran believes a lot of important information is being kept from them by the Kurds. They are concerned that if such an agreement materializes, it will bring the Americans one step closer into Iran's backyard. Last week, Maliki dismissed the negotiating team with the Americans and appointed a new one from his private team (all of whom are strongly affiliated with Tehran).

It has been a difficult summer for Maliki and it looks as if it is going to be a difficult Ramadan as well. Fasting for Muslims starts at sunrise, and lasts until 7:30 pm. Electricity still goes off 10 to 12 hours a day (but probably not in the Green Zone), making fasting all the more difficult. The last thing Maliki needs is a feud with the Kurds.

Sami Moubayed is a Syrian writer and political analyst.