Monday 09 August 2010

How Iranian grenade turned into 'happiness' cracker

The Financial Times

Did anyone try to kill Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad?

The mystery dominated the news on Wednesday as conflicting reports emerged about a purported attack on the Iranian president’s convoy during a trip to the western city of Hamadan.

Officials were quoted confirming, then denying, the report which curiously appeared first on a website connected to one of the Iranian president’s sworn enemies – Ali Larijani, the parliament speaker who was ousted by Mr Ahmadi-Nejad in 2007 as chief security official.

Before the end of the day, the hand grenade that had been hurled at the president had absurdly become a “home-made cracker” thrown in “happiness” at the president’s visit.

That so much attention should be given to Mr Ahmadi-Nejad is hardly surprising – he is the figure most hated by the Iranian opposition for allegedly rigging last year’s presidential election. He is also one of the most controversial figures on the world stage, despised by many for his Holocaust denials, predictions of the disappearance of Israel, and defiance of the west.

At a time when Iran’s advancing nuclear programme poses one of the biggest foreign policy challenges for western powers, not least the US, the fate of Mr Ahmadi-Nejad and his position within the regime are of crucial importance.

In an opaque political system, any hint of internal trouble is closely analysed.

The 54-year-old son of a blacksmith, who served as mayor of Tehran, became president in 2005. His image as a humble man of the people won him popularity but although his populist economic policies retained support, he is widely believed to have lost the June 2009 presidential election to his reformist rival, Mir-Hossein Moussavi.

That he was able to maintain power, however, was thanks to his boss, Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader and ultimate decisionmaker, who backed his election and turned against the reformists.

Iran has lurched from crisis to crisis since the vote, which was followed by the worst unrest since the 1979 founding of the Islamic Republic. The Revolutionary Guard, the group believed to be the main backer of Mr Ahmadi-Nejad, unleashed a campaign of repression that has left the reformist opposition angry and disillusioned.

True, the regime has consolidated power since the election, by sidelining more moderate elements allied to Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani, a former president and supporter of Mr Moussavi. Yet Mr Ahmadi-Nejad has been having an increasingly hard time, with some analysts suggesting that his relationship with the supreme leader is turning sour.

Even the fundamentalist camp in parliament has been turning against him, as the combination of sanctions and a stagnating economy frustrate lawmakers. Indeed, every move Mr Ahmadi-Nejad makes seems to solicit a bad reaction, including when he defies the US and when he offers talks.

Emir Mohebian, a conservative analyst, says that with fundamentalists now heading the main power centres, former rivalries are returning.

“The fundamentalist camp is moving towards a place in which its heads are lining up against one another rather than [engaging in] wise management,” he says. “Fundamentalists must take a close look into matters [disputes] and settle them before they turn into a crisis for the system.”




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