MI head: Iran sanctions not affecting nuke program

The Jerusalem Post

Head of Military Intelligence to the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee Maj.-Gen. Aviv Kohavi on Tuesday said that sanctions imposed against the Iranian government have not harmed the country's nuclear program or the strengthening of its military.

“The Iranian regime is maintaining stability despite the sanctions," Kohavi explained. "It is maintaining its basis for its strength and the sanctions do not harm its nuclear program and the strengthening of its military."

However, Kohavi explained that the sanctions have caused "an economic burden." Economic sanctions have "resulted in it [Iran] only being able to supply its people with 25 percent of its gas. The Iranian regime recently drastically cut substantial gas subsidies to the people. Iran has made NIS 600 million from the rise in the price of gas, but it is not enough to make up from what they lost from the sanctions," Kohavi continued.

'Qom continues to be built'

"The sanctions have had an impact on the Iranian economy, but they have had no impact on Iran's nuclear program," Kohavi said. "Until now 3.2 tons of low-enriched uranium at 3% enrichment, 40,000 at 20%. Qom continues to be built and in 2011 will be filled with centrifuges."

Addressing the timetable as to when Teheran will be capable of creating a nuclear weapon, Kohavi emphasized that, "The question is not when Iran will have a bomb but rather how much time until the leader decides to escalate to 90% [enrichment]. Based on their [the Iranian] infrastructure and the technical know-how and uranium they have, within a year or two after he [Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad] makes that decision, they will have nuclear weapons. This timetable is not relevant for a nuclear missile, which can take a number of years," Kohavi added.

Kohavi continued: "Their leader's decision to up the race towards finishing the project breaks with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and endangers them before the international community, bringing them towards sanctions and military action."

'Iranian instability'

"Considering Iran's outlook," Kohavi told the FADC, "they [the Iranian government] do not intend to go forward and upgrade in 2011 because of the instability in Iran and the religious tensions in the country following [Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali] Khamenei's knowledge that breaking it [the NPT] would harm Iran critically and open the country to a military strike."

"Bushehr today is active for civil uses but also has a symbolic status," Kohavi said. "With the technical expertise, it could be used to create materials that can be used by Iran."

"A month ago, India joined the sanctions," continued Kohavi. "The fact that last week's talks failed will cause the world to escalate sanctions. Iran arrived at the negotiations with the international community with great self-confidence. Today, in the world, there is a growing understanding that Iran is seeking a nuclear military capability. However, the world believes there is still more time to deal with the threat."