The Latest from Iran (14 February): It is 25 Bahman

EA WorldView, 0943 GMT: A Protest? Green Voice of Freedom is reporting that people are gathering at Sadeghieh Square in Tehran.

0940 GMT: Remain Indoors. Saham News claims that office workers have been offered overtime if they remain at their desks until 6 p.m. today.

0934 GMT: Security Moves. Saeed Ahmed of CNN reports, "About 50 riot police in bikes were headed toward Azadi Square. Another 100 are at Ferdowsi square. No protests yet."

0930 GMT: Shutting in Mousavi (cont.). Plainclothes policemen have physically prevented Zahra Rahnavard from exiting her house, ostensibly to go to the rally.

0910 GMT: Shutting In Mousavi. Kalemeh reports that police have blocked off the alleyway leading to Mir Hossein Mousavi's residence, shutting him in, and it repeats the news that phone communications of both Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi have been cut.

Security forces enforcing an effective house arrest on Karroubi residence are now preventing Karroubi's wife Fatemeh from leaving the home.

0725 GMT: Protest on a Crane. Thanks to EA readers who have notified us of the person atop a crane in Tehran. Internet chatter is that he may be demonstrating over the death of a relative, whose photograph he is waving, as well as a green cloth.

0720 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch (Music Video Edition). Singer Aria Aramnejad has been sentenced to 10 months in prison.

Aramnejad, known for his song “Ali Barkhiz” (“Rise up Ali”), was accused of actions against national security and collusion to topple the regime when he put out a song criticising state brutality during the Ashura protests of 27 December 2009. He was arrested on 14 February 2010 and spent almost two months in solitary condiment.

He was notified of the judiciary’s decision via telephone.

715 GMT: CyberProtest. The website of Iran's official broadcaster IRIB has been knocked off-line.

Last Thursday the collective Anonymous, which has taken out many Government sites, including in Tunisia and Egypt, promised the initiation of Operation Iran.

0620 GMT: Linking Up. RASA TV, the channel of the Green Movement, features a message of support --- in English with Persian subtitles --- from a Tunisian activist:

0610 GMT: MediaWatch. Iranian state outlet Press TV has just discussed the planned "Day of Rage" in Bahrain today and reviewed Sunday's protests in Yemen. Somehow, they forgot to note the 25 Bahman marches.

0555 GMT: Conflicting accounts on the position that the Revolutionary Guards will take towards any large rally....

There were reports yesterday that the Guards will not confront any rally but just "control" it; however, commmander Hossein Hamadani was talking tough, “The conspirators are nothing but corpses. Any incitement will be dealt with severely.”

0550 GMT: Senior Mousavi advisor Amir Arjomand, in a move far more significant than his invitation to Turkish President Gul (see 0535 GMT), has declared that both Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi --- despite the regime's restrictions on their movement and commmunications --- will make it to today's march.

0535 GMT: A couple of moves from the Mousavi camp on the eve of 25 Bahman....

Zahra Rahnavard, academic, activist, and wife of Mousavi, has promoted a statement from women political prisoners declaring their faith in the Green Movement, expressing full support for the march, and inviting the public to participate in this rally.

And, in a rather cheeky move, a senior advisor to Mousavi, Ardeshir Amir Arjomand, has called on Turkish President Abdullah Gul --- whose current four-day tour of Iran is the star publicity turn for the regime --- to join the march:

0525 GMT: It is 8:55 a.m. local time in Iran. The rally for this afternoon --- which still has not been formally denied permission by the Minister of Interior --- is not scheduled until 3 p.m. (1200 GMT) in Tehran and up to 40 other locations across Iran.

So there is likely to be a long lull before any significant developments.

The US State Department has made a move --- whether it is more than symbolic remains to be seen --- by launching the Persian-language Twitter account, @USAdarFarsi. Its 1st message announces its presence. Its second call the Iranian regime hypocitical for suppressing dissent while praising the uprising of the Egyptian people. Its third called on Tehran "to allow people to enjoy same universal rights to peacefully assemble, demonstrate as in Cairo".

0515 GMT: Today is 25 Bahman. Unlike many dates in Iran's post-election crisis --- Qods Day, Ashura, National Students Day, the anniversary of the Islamic Revolution only three days ago --- it has no religious or political significance.

That is an unexceptional status which the opposition hopes to change today. Earlier this month, former Presidential candidates Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi sought a permit for a rally from central Tehran to Azadi (Freedom) Square, the large open space with the striking monument that has been the symbolic space of the Islamic Revolution.

Ostensibly, the march would be in support of the Egyptian and Tunisian uprisings, but its overriding aim was simpler and closer to home: just to be seen. The "Green Wave" has been unable to put up a significant public demonstration since the Ashura rally at the end of December 2009. While resistance has continued in many ways, it has been a scattered challenge which has done little more than to keep a question mark over the regime's legitimacy.

But, as the Tunisian and Egyptian examples have shown in the last two months, that question mark can quickly change into a widespread, public confrontation with the regime. And so the Green Movement, which began 18 months before those challenges in Tunis and Cairo, hopes to get a political foothold once more.