Friday 11 March 2011

Iran next in line for revolution

Examiner.com, What started in Tunisia, spread to Egypt and is passing through Libya is far from over. With brief stops in-between at Bahrain and Yemen (so far), shaky Middle East and northern Africa regimes nervously shore up their support wherever they can find it. This surge of street democracy may still engulf other kings and autocrats in the coming weeks and months.

The biggest question mark of them all remains understandably nervous. They watchas the fires of political change spread ever closer to their borders. That country is Iran and its significance overshadows the rest of the violent, fast-moving winds of change.

This is clearly a turning point in the history of the region. What started with the suicide of an insignificant street merchant in Tunisia now threatens virtually all regional powers. Nothing of this magnitude has been occurred in this era of global nuclear powers and wanna-be players.

It is a political chess game being played out amongst the poorest to the very richest in the region.

Thus far, the United States has been relegated to observer status in localized situations they are basically powerless to control or influence to any degree. Luckily this has not been a cripling factor to our foreign policy to date. Where it will all lead tomorrow remains a mystery to even the most veteran state department officials.

Ironically, Iran's leaders delighted just weeks ago at events unfolding in Egypt, encouraging the opposition to spread rebellion. Today they are transposed into fear for their own selfish survival as the cries for political freedom ring in the Ayatollah's ears.

In a world of the Internet and instant images, Iranians are closely monitoring the vast transformations of these regional dictatorships. A weary government in Teheran can do little to prevent the images of young freedom fighters leaving a lasting impression on their own idealistic generation born after the fall of the Shah.

Half of Iran's population is under the age of 30.

Could a government that came to power through revolutionary protest now be facing many of those same critics now defying their rule? And will the younger generation supply the revoutionary energy to drive the revolt to victory?

Tehran crushed the “green revolution” of two years ago with arrests, beatings and executions, much of it filtering out via social media. Unlike Egypt, the Iranian military is on the side of the theocrats and civilians running the country. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has tried to adopt the Cairo protests as the legacy of Iran's uprising in 1979 that toppled the hated Shah.

Washington, which has acted uncertainly as Egypt's Mubarak lost control, has lost no time (unlike two years ago) promoting its support of protest in Iran. “There needs to be a commitment to open the political system in Iran,” Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said.

The situation in Libya at this moment is far less vital to American interests than it is to western Europe. Iran is the key to the region in terms of U.S. military power and influence - not to mention the grave concerns over its future nuclear threat.

Democracy, civil liberties and economic change were once unattainable ideals in the Mideast, with Washington often failing to support these professed goals. Is it possible to now rethink the notion that another colossus uprising can be imagined in Iran?

If such an uprising has a centiliter of credibility, it is our duty as Americans to encourage it's rebirth in every way possible. A successful change in power within that country could mean the lives of millions in the future. The scenario looms for this deadly clash of wills.

The Iranian crisis will dwarf anything the world has seen so far.




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