Bahrain: Ticking bomb of the Persian gulf

A month ago, Bahrain was set to explode. Today, it's a ticking bomb that threatens an even bigger explosion next to the HQ of the US Navy's Fifth Fleet -- and on the border of the world's largest oil exporter, Saudi Arabia.

The respite had a price. Oil-rich Arab states coughed up $10 billion for the island state's social problems. The Saudis, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates also provided 4,000 soldiers and policemen to beef up security in a country with some 700,000 people.

Unprecedented repression also played a part. More than 800 people have been arrested, while 150 others have "disappeared."

The Bahraini drama started as a smaller-scale version of the "Arab Uprising" against despots in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, Libya and Syria.

Bahraini protesters had moderate demands: a new government headed by a prime minister chosen by the parliament (Council of Deputies). They hoped that free elections would produce a fairer representation of the population in a parliament that, they insisted, should get full legislative powers. Shiites account for 75 percent of the population -- but for only 14 of the parliament's 40 members.

The protesters also demanded better social services in pockets of poverty that exist alongside some of the Persian Gulf's richest neighborhoods.

The movement couldn't be ignored. At one point, it assembled 100,000 people. Pearl Square, a crossroads turned into assembly point for protesters, became a source of moral authority for this archipelago of 32 islands.

For a while, a moderate faction also seemed to exist in the ruling Al Khalifa family, headed by Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad. Informal "dialogues" between Salman and a delegation representing the protesters gave shape to a "National Concord" designed to move the nation toward democracy.

But the concord came under pressure from Saudi Arabia and Iran. The Saudis feared that concessions to Shiites might give ideas to the kingdom's own Shiites, a majority in the oil-rich province of Al-Sharqiyah. Fear of a "Shiite Crescent" -- spanning from Iran to the Mediterranean and encompassing Iraq, Bahrain and Syria plus Yemen and chunks of eastern Saudi Arabia -- has featured in Riyadh's propaganda for years.

Connected to the kingdom by a bridge, Bahrain is regarded by the Saudis as an extension of the kingdom in all but name. The message from Riyadh to Bahrain's King Hamad bin Issa was that the Saudis wouldn't tolerate a Shiite-dominated government in Manama.

Iran, too, tried to sabotage the "concord." Having failed to impose its allies as rulers of post-Saddam Iraq, Tehran now hoped for a satellite government in Bahrain.

From its early days, the Khomeinist regime has vowed to "liberate" Bahrain. In 1971, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini denounced the shah for having abandoned Iran's claim of sovereignty over Bahrain, allowing it to become independent.

In 1979, the ayatollah created a "volunteer" army to "liberate" Bahrain and close the US Navy's base. Headed by Ayatollah Sadeq Rouhani, the "Bahrain Liberation Army" made some quixotic attempts at entering the archipelago. In 1980, with Saddam's armies invading Iran, the ayatollahs put their Bahrain plans on the backburner.

Tehran clearly smuggled agitators into Bahrain last month. Some were exiles living in Iran or Europe and belonging to Hezbollah's Bahraini branch. Others were Hezbollah "advisers" from Lebanon.

Bahraini authorities also claim that Lebanese Hezbollah smuggled arms into Manama and organized attacks on police posts west of the capital.

Hezbollah agitators were reportedly responsible for radicalizing the movement, notably by launching the slogan "Al Khalifa! Out!" They also tried to impose the hijab, by threatening to throw acid at young girls who refused to cover their heads. Other tactics included erecting roadblocks and raids on businesses to force them to put up portraits of Iran's "supreme guide," Ali Khamenei. Shiites working with the police and the army were asked to quit. In some Shiite neighborhoods, loudspeakers broadcast Shiite prayers and the sayings of the imams.

"Their strategy was to create an atmosphere in which Shiites sought protection from Hezbollah while Sunnis had to hide behind the police," says Radha Abdul-Hadi, a protest activist. "They thought that by making Bahrain look like somewhere in Iran, they would attach it to the Islamic Republic in all but name."

What started as a pro-democracy movement became a cover for a clash between Saudi Arabia and Iran over the shape of the new Middle East emerging from the "Arab Uprising" and the US retreat under President Obama.

For the moment, Saudi Arabia has won in Bahrain. But the time bomb still ticks.

Source: http://www.nypost.com/p/news/opinion/opedcolumnists/bahrain_ticking_bomb_of_the_gulf_07sRwWB4M0b0R9qvm0OHbP