Trouble in Syria sets off alarm in Tehran

Iran's state media portray Syria as a country at peace, as confident and robust an ally as it has always been. Officials in Tehran rarely mention the uprising in Syria, and the Shia clergy, outspoken on the crackdown against Shia protesters in Bahrain, say little of the killing of hundreds of Syrian demonstrators. "Syrian officials have the necessary thoughts and capability to resolve their domestic problems," says Ramin Mehmanparast of the foreign ministry.

Since the Arab revolts began more than four months ago, Iran has been looking for opportunity, cheering what it at first claimed were Islamic uprisings, even if Islamists were not the main players on the streets, and savouring in particular the fall of Hosni Mubarak, a strident opponent, as Egypt's ­president.

But the spread of the unrest to Syria, Iran's closest Arab friend, highlights the risks presented by the new mood. As one Arab official says: "If the regime of Bashar al-Assad [Syria's president] falls, any successor will be less accommodating to Iran."

Iranian analysts expect ties with Sunni-majority Syria to be tested, even if the minority Alawite regime survives. "Should Bashar al-Assad stay in power, he will have to please his country's Sunni population and distance himself from Iran to some extent," reformist former diplomats wrote on the Iran Diplomacy website.

The decade has proved beneficial to Iran, with Saddam Hussein, its Iraqi foe, replaced by a Shia-led, Iran-friendly government in Baghdad. Iran could also count on Syria, whose alliance with the Islamic regime goes back decades.

Damascus has been a gateway to the Arab world and partner to Iran in the support of Lebanon's Hizbollah and of Palestinian groups. Those alliances have given Tehran growing influence in Arab affairs.

Even before the unrest reached Syria, Tehran had cause to worry. Paul Salem, director of the Carnegie Middle East Centre in Beirut, says Iran has not been undermined so far by the Arab spring but the mood in the region is not in Tehran's favour.

"The wave in the Arab world is moving in the direction that Turkey is in, not Iran democracy and pluralist societies opened to east and west," he says. "It makes people more sympathetic to the Iranian opposition, who look more like them, than to the regime."

True, a more democratic government in Egypt will be less vehement in its opposition to Iranian policy. But it will also be more legitimate, returning to Cairo its role as a credible regional power, and a more important rival to Iran. Even while in transition Egypt is reasserting its authority, brokering a deal between rival Palestinian factions that had eluded the previous regime.

Analysts say the Damascus-based leadership of Hamas, the Islamist group, signed up to the reconciliation agreement with the secular Fatah last week because it wanted to cosy up to Egypt and, importantly, because it now fears losing the backing of Syria.

At the start of the Bahrain uprising, Iran was encouraged by the prospect of Shia empowerment in a Sunni-dominated monarchy. But the Shia protests were crushed with the help of Sunni Arab neighbours led by Saudi Arabia.

The message from the Gulf was that no Sunni monarchy would be allowed to fall, and certainly not one whose collapse could play into the hands of Iran.

The Bahrain crisis has strained ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and criticism from the west of the Arab intervention appears to have eased, causing Tehran to complain at western double standards.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader, said Bah­raini protesters had been subjected to the "biggest injustice" of the region, condemning Riyadh indirectly for sending in troops.

Some conservative media outlets in Tehran now claim that Saudi Arabia is behind a plot to overthrow Mr Assad. But Iran's opposition is highlighting a different conspiracy, condemning in blogs the alleged presence of Revolutionary Guard units in Syria and accusing them of killing civilians. The US too has charged that the Revolutionary Guard is involved in the repression in Syria, an allegation denied by Damascus and Tehran.

Analysts say the biggest threat to the Iranian regime is the impact of the regional upheaval on the opposition, whose Green movement was repressed after the 2009 presidential elections.

Disenchantment with the regime of Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad, the president, persists, and the opposition attempted fresh protests this year. "The big question for Iran remains the domestic question," says Mr Salem. "The regime is still under pressure and has an ongoing opposition protest movement."

Financial Times