"After Gadhafi It's Khamenei" For Iranian Opposition

Source: OfficialWire

As the leaders of the Middle East’s rogue states are reversed one after the other, Iran seems to feel the heat at its door steps.

Dozens of messages of joy, circulating Iranian net activists clearly shows how intertwined the Arab and Persian Springs are. Messages all have a tint of hope and aspiration looking for a reversal of the regime as one reads: “The Libyan people are lucky they don’t have any so called “reformists” blowing off the flames of resistance and none of those that change color once in awhile from black turbines to Green ones.”

That was hardly the response the clerics were hoping for when they extolled the protests in Egypt, comparing events with their own Islamic revolution in 1979. Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader, claimed earlier in February that the uprisings in the Arab World as part of an “Islamic awakening” and poured scorn on the West’s military moves to protect the Libyan civilians.

The clerical Leader had in a message in the first month of Iranian New year called the Libyan uprising as “Bitter developments” and denounced UN intervention as a ”Shame." He later discloses the reason for his sharp reaction to US President Obama’s speech. Ali Khamenei, lampooned Obama, who had said Iranians that stage protests were driven by the same “forces of Hope” and clearly said “they are making similarities."

Libya has been a strategic ally of Tehran for a long time. Like Syria which has served clerical interests in the region with regards to Lebanon and Hezbollah, Libya has backed the mullahs in International disputes as well as terrorist activities (*The Lockerbie plain terrorist explosion).

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On the massive killings and atrocities by Bashar Al Assad forces, Iranian official Alaeddin Boroujerdi clearly drew a red line to support their ally and said: "The interests of the Muslim people (Meaning Tehran in this context) command that we mobilize ourselves to support Syria as a center of Palestinian resistance."

The clerics have always been blatant in supporting regional allies under a “Palestinian cause “or by taking advantage of the antagonistic concept of the “third world facing the Imperialists and Axisi of Evil." In both ways, they would benefit from an audience that would render demagogy as
“being gallant and progressive." With the recent Gale in Libya and Syria, this taboo has been shunned by the “freedom fighters” involved.

In a recent press release, the NCRI (One Main opposition movement based in Paris with its member the MEK based in Camp Ashraf) the new development was interpreted as a “Victory” that has “terrified the Iranian regime and its velayat-e faqih.”

“After the dictators in Libya and Syria, the mullahs ruling Iran are the main losers of these nations’ uprisings. The mullahs are extremely terrified of the effects of these uprisings inside Iran in the expansion of popular protests throughout. During the past 30 years, the mullahs have financed tens of billions of dollars on establishing such an alliance and their main tool in exporting terrorism and fundamentalism in the region, and instigating crisis and blackmail in the international stage.”

Extract of statement by NCRI : Maryam Rajavi – President elect of NCRI –August 22 , 2011

Despite extreme crackdown of opposition activists, the present change in the equilibrium of the region is energetic for the eruptive “volcano” under the ashes in Iran.

Iranian opposition groups estimate that the majority of those executed have been political activists, many changed with “Moharebe” ( Mainly attributed to those who are waging war against God, in this case being Ali Khamenei) an audacious religious charge only used by the clerical regime. Some of those have been subjects of long odious human right campaigns such as “Jafar Kazemi," “ Ali Saremi” and a Dutch-Iranian woman Sahra Bahrami.

For Tehran, the implications of the uprising in Libya are therefore much bigger than they were in Tunisia or Egypt: as depicted in recent net-chats and Iranian blogs: If ordinary citizens can overthrow Gadhafi , of all people, every other despot in the region may look vulnerable—including Ali Khamenei and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in Iran. It has opned a new insight to “Passive movement” mainly vocalized by Moussavi’s Green Movement which has been silenced and integrated into the regime, and a more lively “active movement” demanded by the youth who now have witness the impact of a “Freedom Movement” in the region.

The challenge for Western governments now is to decide how best to encourage regime change in rogue states such as Iran: either back progressive forces organized and able to bring that change or lag behind the regime.

Photo: Distributed by Iranian activists reads : Cancelled

http://www.reaganfoundation.org/reagan-quotes-detail.aspx?tx=2095

Fabian Mahmoudi is a freelance journalist, researcher for Middle Eastern developments, specialized on Iraq and Iran.