Syria’s turmoil: Will foreigners get involved?

AFTER six months of demonstrations and some 2,600 deaths, mainly of unarmed civilians, protesters have begun to call in desperate earnest for foreign help. They dubbed the most recent Friday “international protection day”. Many waved signs calling for a UN resolution and for an observer mission to visit the country. Foreign involvement is still minimal. But the prospect of it is being more hotly debated, both inside Syria and beyond.

A growing number of governments, including many in the region, have called on President Bashar Assad to make concessions. Turkey has turned against him, while keeping diplomatic avenues open. Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states have sharpened their criticism. Even Iran, Mr Assad’s main regional ally, has been making more nuanced noises.

The United States and the European Union have imposed economic sanctions, banning imports of Syrian oil (a full embargo is to start on November 15th), thus denying Syria 95% of its oil-export market. They are also looking to extend sanctions against people and companies, and will try to stop banknotes printed in Europe being sent back into Syrian circulation.

Further measures are being floated in Washington and Brussels. Private banks that deal with Syria’s regime, most of them Lebanese subsidiaries, may be targeted if the killing persists. Byblos Bank, in whose Syrian subsidiary Rami Makhlouf, the president’s cousin, has a big share, may be hit. Syria’s central bank may also be a target. On September 14th the UN’s High Commissioner on Human Rights appointed a panel to investigate Syria. Some say Mr Assad and his closest allies should be referred to the International Criminal Court in The Hague.

Visiting dignitaries have sought in vain to persuade Mr Assad to give ground, if not to resign immediately. On September 10th the Arab League’s new head, Nabil al-Arabi, who was briefly Egypt’s foreign minister under the new order, proposed a timetable for open elections. But the Arabs still lack a consensus. In any event, this falls far short of foreign intervention on the side of the protesters.

Moreover, Mr Assad still has useful foreign friends. Russia, China, India and Brazil continue to oppose a UN Security Council resolution and UN-imposed sanctions. Russia supplies arms and is building a naval base on Syria’s coast. China and India may buy oil to make up for the export shortfall. It is inconceivable that the UN Security Council would now impose a no-fly zone over Syria as it did in March over Libya: Russia and China would veto it. Nor would NATO governments support such a course.

Instead, some governments are ramping up efforts to help Syria’s fragmented opposition. Turkey and Qatar have hosted gatherings to forge opposition fronts. France is building up links. Many protesters look eagerly to Turkey, which shares a border of nearly 900km (560 miles) with Syria. Some say that, especially if the pace of killing rises, the Turks may be persuaded to create a buffer zone to protect refugees in a “safe haven” along the border. Others air the idea of other havens, for defecting soldiers as well as civilian refugees, in the south and north-east of the country, along the borders with Jordan and Iraq.

Another step in the campaign against Mr Assad is an increase in funds for the opposition. More of the protesters, who have generally been determinedly non-violent, are talking of taking up arms, many of which are already being smuggled across porous borders. So the unrest could turn into a civil conflict. Governments in neighbouring countries might then have to decide which side they are on. Rich people from the Gulf, among other places, are said to be involved. Syria’s turmoil may yet take on a wider regional dimension. Ordinary Syrians are getting ever more fearful.

Source: The Economist