The Week in Review

theTrumpet.com

Radical Islam tallies wins in Tunisia, Libya, Iraq and Gaza; Berlin transforms from financier to dominator; Beijing warns its neighbors to ‘prepare for the sounds of cannons’; and the U.S. faces another debt downgrade.

Islamists emerge victorious in Tunisian election: Tunisia’s Islamist Ennahda party, an affiliate of the Muslim Brotherhood, obtained first place in the country’s election held on Sunday, winning around 40 percent of the Constituent Assembly’s seats. The election created the first freely elected political body in Tunisia’s history, an assembly that will draft a new constitution for the country and appoint a new interim president and government to rule until another set of elections is held next year or in early 2013. Although a system of checks and balances will force Ennahda to seek alliances with secularist parties, its influence will be the dominant force in Tunisian politics. The party seeks to do away with Tunisia’s secular traditions and create a Muslim theocracy based on sharia law. On Wednesday, Ali Akbar Velayati, the Iranian supreme leader’s top adviser, said the election results would help Islamists gain ground in Egypt and Libya. “The result of the election in Tunisia will positively affect regional developments,” he said. “We will observe the victory of Islamists in future elections in Egypt and Libya.” Ennahda’s success is indeed a clear indication of what the results of the wave of uprisings will be throughout the Middle East.

The death of Qadhafi heralds radical turn for Libya: Libyan dictator Muammar Qadhafi was killed by rebel forces on October 20. While his death was met with euphoria in parts of Libya and the West, the reality is that the West’s interference in Libya has set the stage for an Iranian coup. nato “has armed, trained and financed the creation of an Islamist Libya,” writes the Washington Times. “Jihadists fill the ranks of the rebels. Many of them were in Iraq and Afghanistan, killing and maiming U.S. soldiers. There are even al Qaeda members among them.” This past Sunday—the very day Libya’s National Transitional Council officially declared an end to the war—Mustafa Abdul-Jalil, the council’s chairman and de facto president, decreed that polygamy in Libya is now legal, explaining that Qadhafi’s law against it conflicted with Islam. He also promised that in future banks would no longer be permitted to charge interest, to bring them into compliance with sharia law. “We are an Islamic state,” he said.

Losing the peace in Iraq: On October 21, President Obama announced a complete withdrawal of U.S. soldiers from Iraq by the end of the year following the failure of talks with the Iraqi government to extend the status-of-forces agreement between the two countries. While the U.S. president is presenting the pullout as a victory for America, the reality is the precise opposite. On one level, the pullout is a failure of extensive efforts by the U.S. to persuade the Iraqi government to allow it to keep several thousand troops in the country past December 31. Under pressure from Iran and pro-Iran Shiite factions, Baghdad rebuffed Washington. The withdrawal is also a strategic failure. Retired Army Gen. John M. Keane, who was instrumental in the 2007 troop surge in Iraq, calls the decision an “absolute disaster” that puts the new Iraqi government at risk of an Iranian “strangling.” “We won the war in Iraq, and we’re now losing the peace,” he said. Iraq does not have the counterterrorism skills or defense ability to protect itself, analysts say. General Keane added, “We’re losing the peace because the number one strategic enemy we have in the region is Iran. And as a result of us pulling away from Iraq, we’re losing our influence in Iraq. And the Iranians are gaining influence in Iraq.” Retired Army Brig. Gen. Mark Kimmitt, a former deputy operations chief in Baghdad, said, “Strategically, it’s obvious. This is a big win for Tehran.” Jeffrey Kuhner at the Washington Times writes that “Iran’s mullahs have won. Once Tehran acquires the nuclear bomb, it will be able to blackmail its neighbors, dominate the region and impose a stranglehold over the world’s oil supply. The trend is clear: American power is in retreat” (October 25).

Prisoner swap a win for Hamas: A prisoner swap between Israel and Hamas last week freed kidnapped Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit in exchange for 1,027 Palestinian terrorists. Hamas leaders responded by openly declaring they would launch more kidnapping attempts in order to free thousands more terrorists. “We will continue to abduct Israeli soldiers and officers as long as there are Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails,” Ahmed Jabari, the commander of Hamas’s military wing, was quoted as saying. Israeli opposition leader Tzipi Livni declared that the swap was a big mistake, saying it has strengthened Hamas and undermined Israel’s deterrent capability. Hamas sees the Egyptian-brokered swap as a great victory. By demonstrating it can secure the release of over 1,000 prisoners, the Gaza-based terrorist group has increased its stature among Palestinians. Among Egyptians, the deal is seen as an indication of the return of Egypt to a leading regional role. As part of its involvement in the process, Egypt received an official apology from Israel over the accidental killing of Egyptian border guards after the Palestinian terrorist attack on an Israeli convoy in August. Though Israel now says it will create a new policy for prisoner exchanges so such lopsided deals won’t happen again, it is increasingly operating from a position of weakness—and its enemies know it.

Archbishop calls for more Catholic support of Christians in the Holy Land: On September 27, Archbishop Edwin F. O’Brien called on Catholics around the world to support Christians in Israel and other Middle Eastern locations. O’Brien was recently appointed the grand master of the Equestrian Order of the Holy Sepulcher of Jerusalem, an organization responsible for defending and promoting Christianity in the Holy Land. His comments come at a time of rising tensions between Muslims and Christians. Twelve days after O’Brien’s statements, Islamists clashed with Coptic Christians who were peacefully protesting the destruction of a church in the south of Egypt. The outbreak of violence left 26 Christians dead and over 300 injured, and provided a microcosmic view of the friction between Christians and Muslims.

Most IEDs in Afghanistan come from Pakistan: Pakistan produced the explosive material used in the overwhelming majority of improvised explosive devices (ieds) planted by insurgents in Afghanistan this summer to attack U.S. forces, according to U.S. military officials. From June through August, U.S. soldiers discovered or were hit by 5,088 ieds, the highest number for any three-month span since the beginning of the war in 2001. Those bombs killed 63 troops and wounded another 1,234. Navy Capt. Douglas Borrebach, deputy director for resources and requirements at the U.S.’s Joint ied Defeat Organization, said that over 80 percent of these makeshift bombs used calcium ammonium nitrate fertilizer made in Pakistan. Sen. Robert Casey met with Pakistani leaders in August to urge them to halt the flow of explosive materials into Afghanistan. After the visit, Casey told USA Today that although the leaders said they would help, they did not show a sense of urgency. It is becoming clearer all the time that America’s frayed alliance with Pakistan is almost over.

Opium production surges in Afghanistan: Opium production in Afghanistan increased 61 percent this year according to the United Nations. Rising demand and worsening security have contributed to the undoing of three years of antidrug efforts. The UN said the farm-gate value of this year’s harvest more than doubled to $1.4 billion, with the street value being much higher. Half of that revenue may be going to insurgents fighting U.S.-led coalition forces in Afghanistan, said the head of the UN Office on Drugs and Crime in Kabul.

Europe

Talk of a new “United States of Europe”—with Britain left on the sidelines: Last Saturday, European Council President Herman Van Rompuy called for a new “United States of Europe” that would not include Britain. The plan comes as European governments are attempting to save the euro from collapse. British sources said that Van Rompuy, who is viewed as an ally of the German government, suggested plans for a “finance ministry” to be established in Frankfurt or Paris, which would represent a significant stride in the unification of the European Union. Many euroskeptical Brits, meanwhile, are calling for a “repatriation of powers” from the EU back to Britain. On Thursday, the Guardian’s John Palmer said, “The combination of eurozone political union and backbench Euroskepticism may herald a gradual departure from the EU.” Expect Britain to be sidelined more and more as mainland Europe takes further steps to unite.

Pundit calls for new deutsche mark to save Europe: Writing for the Washington Times on October 21, Brett Decker said that Europe’s “viable economies need to break away from collapsing euro currency” and to return to the German deutsche mark. “There is growing interest in numerous capitals to pull out of the eurozone before all of Europe goes down with the ship,” he wrote. “Teutonic phobia likely would prevent a new currency from actually being called the deutsche mark but everybody would know that’s what it is,” Decker continued. Hans-Olaf Henkel, former president of the Federation of German Industries, also recently called for strong European economies to leave the euro for a German currency. Polls show that most Germans support a return to the deutsche mark in the wake of the eurozone’s financial troubles that have encumbered the otherwise robust German economy. As the world’s fifth-largest economy and second-largest exporter, Germany’s economy is astoundingly powerful, and German taxpayers are tired of constantly bailing out what they see as irresponsible countries. Decker’s and Henkel’s calls for a return to a deutsche mark are representative of the radical nature of many options currently being bandied about in Europe. Whatever the outcome of the crisis, Germany is certain to emerge with much greater leverage over other European nations.

Pope calls for a central world bank: On Monday, an 18-page document released by the Vatican’s Justice and Peace department called “for sweeping reforms of the world economy and the creation of an ethical, global authority to regulate financial markets” (Reuters, October 24). The central world bank would rule over financial institutions proven to be ineffective in handling crises. The report proposed the establishment of “a supranational authority” with worldwide scope and “universal jurisdiction” to help formulate economic policies. As the world financial chaos continues, expect the Vatican to step in to fulfill its role in biblical prophecy as that “supranational authority” for a short season.

Germany’s newfound might sets off alarm bells in Europe: Germany’s role in Europe for the last several years has been to supply the money, not the leadership, the Washington Post wrote last Saturday. But that is quickly changing, it said: “With fresh memories of war, the Continent was cautious about German domination—and so were the Germans themselves. But the economic crisis has shaken Europe’s postwar model, and Germany increasingly calls the shots. As countries struggle to pay their debts, only Chancellor Angela Merkel has enough money to haul them out of trouble. And the price Merkel is demanding—more control over how they run their economies—is setting off alarm bells in capitals across the Continent.” As indications of the rising worry, many protesters in Greece have dressed up as Nazis, and the topic of Germany’s imperial ambitions has found its way into Poland’s campaign rhetoric. “That’s the predicament of leadership,” said Joschka Fischer, former German foreign minister. “When Germany acts, there is the fear that Germany will dominate.” In spite of concerns, the economic plight of many nations leaves them no choice but to vest Germany with more power.

Asia

Beijing intensifies South China Sea warnings: On Sunday, the Philippines announced that it had rejected Beijing’s demand for Manila to return Chinese fishing boats that Philippine officials had seized near the disputed Reed Bank. Included in China’s demand for their return was a statement that China had indisputable sovereignty over the territory, but the Reed Bank is actually well within the Philippines’s exclusive economic zone. On Tuesday, China’s state-run Global Times responded with an editorial threatening military force and the “sound of cannons” if the Philippines, Vietnam and other countries that claim parts of the South China Sea did not heed Beijing’s current gentle approach to the territorial disputes. The paper wrote: “Currently, China’s mainstream understanding is that it should first go through the general channels of negotiating with other countries to solve sea disputes. But if a situation turns ugly, some form of military action is necessary …. If these countries don’t want to change their ways with China, they will need to mentally prepare for the sounds of cannons. No known method exists to solve these issues in a peaceful way.” The Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, Taiwan and China have conflicting claims to the South China Sea. China and Japan also dispute the ownership of areas in the East China Sea. As China’s power increases, its belligerency will also intensify.

Beijing desires closer military ties with Pakistan: China would like to establish military facilities either in Pakistan’s tribal regions or its northern regions that border China’s Xinjiang province, Pakistani sources said on Wednesday. The sources said Chinese and Pakistani military officials have been discussing the project for months, and that Pakistan has asked China to construct a naval base at its strategic southwestern seaport of Gwadar. The Trumpet has often warned of the danger of Pakistan and its nuclear arsenal falling under the control of either radical Islamism and Iran, or China. Either way, America’s tattered alliance with Pakistan is all but over. This is another in a long list of signs the Anglo-American era is ending, and a new world order is rapidly developing.

Latin America

Argentina more forceful about Falklands: Cristina Kirchner’s sweeping reelection is set to ratchet up tension over the Falkland Islands. Argentina’s strong economic growth was widely seen as the main reason for her huge victory, but it is also being taken in some quarters as an endorsement of her strong-arm approach to gaining sovereignty over the Islands—a popular position. Since coming to power, Kirchner has clamped down on trade with the island, harassed merchant vessels, prohibited British military ships from docking in Argentina, and pushed the United Nations to force Britain to the negotiating table. As Britain’s economy and military continues to suffer the effects of its recession, expect Argentina to become more belligerent.

Latin American defense spending set to grow: Latin American defense spending is set to grow from less than $60 billion in 2011 to more than $65 billion by 2014. Despite the effects of economic slowdown in the region, governments are allocating increased funds to modernize outmoded military infrastructures neglected over more than a decade because of budgetary constraints. As the world grows more precarious, expect more and more nations to prepare for war.

Anglo-America

Britain unable to deport over 5,000 foreign offenders: The number of foreign offenders who have served their sentences but cannot be deported from Britain has crossed the 5,000 mark, according to an inspection report published on Thursday. John Vine, the chief inspector of immigration, says the UK Border Agency needs to ramp up its efforts to manage the 5,375 foreign prisoners who have served their sentences and now remain in detention or have been freed into the community. “More must be done to actively manage these cases—they represent a growing cost to the taxpayer and cannot be ignored,” said Vine. As the will of Britons to preserve their culture continues to erode, expect bureaucracy to render more and more of their immigration policies ineffective for the state.

American debt may be downgraded again: The United States may be smacked by a devastating second downgrade in its credit rating within weeks, according to a warning issued by the Bank of America on Friday of last week. In August, the U.S. was stripped of its cherished aaa credit rating by Standard & Poor’s after political fights over America’s debt ceiling spawned fears of a default. Bank of America analyst Ethan Harris wrote that another ratings agency—either Moody’s or Fitch—will likely follow suit in late November or early December, causing the economy to decelerate even more. As long as the U.S. remains cavalier about reducing its staggering debts, the markets will respond accordingly.