Israel engaged in war of signals over nuclear Iran

Monsters and Critics -- The possibility that Israel may launch a military strike against Iran's nuclear facilities is heading the Jewish state's public agenda again, dominating news reports and generating debate and analysis.

It began Friday, when respected veteran journalist Nahum Barnea published an article entitled 'Atomic Pressure,' which asked whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Ehud Barak have already decided to launch a strike.

Since then, the issue of whether Israel will attack Iran has not departed from the headlines, leading some government ministers to say the reports were causing damage and were even 'madness.'

It was assumed that placing Iran back on the Israeli national agenda was initiated by ministers and senior officials opposed to any strike. But whatever the reason for the flurry of news reports, the topic is now firmly back in the public discourse.

And adding fuel to the speculation were several seemingly coincidental events.

On Thursday the Israeli Army held an extensive civil defence drill in the heavily-populated Tel Aviv area, simulating a missile attack.

The exercise came a day after Israel successfully test-launched a missile, which foreign observers said could carry a nuclear warhead.

On the same day, reports surfaced that the Israel Air Force had conducted long-range exercises at a NATO base in Italy.

All three events had been planned well in advance, and their timing had nothing to do with the Iran issue.

But, as analyst Yakov Lapin noted in the Jerusalem Post, 'the succession of defensive and offensive exercises held in Israel and Sardinia appears to be an unmistakable signal that Jerusalem has not removed the military option, along with its repercussions, from the table.'

Avi Issacharoff and Amos Harel, two well-connected writers at the Ha'aretz daily, say that what is going on right now is a 'war of nerves.'

And it is two-pronged.

Israel regards Iran as its biggest existential threat, because of Tehran's drive for nuclear weapons, and repeated statements by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that the Jewish state should be wiped off the map.

On the one hand, Israel is signaling Iran that it can launch a military attack to do away with the Iranian threat.

But Jerusalem could also be sending a signal to the US and to EU countries which view with horror the possibility of an Israeli attack on Iran. The sub-text of the Israeli messages is to let the world know that if it wants to prevent a military attack, it has to act, and act quickly, to stop Iran.

Iranian responses to the possibility of an Israeli attack - that it would bring about 'apocalyptic consequences' - only heightens the fear that an Israeli strike could engulf the region, possibly beyond, into a conflagration which would not be easily contained.

Ostensibly, say Issacharoff and Harel, Israel is in a 'win-win situation.'

If its signal is absorbed by the international community, than paralyzing sanctions will be imposed on Iran, as Israel demands.

And if the international community does nothing, then Israel has alternatives.

This however supposes events can be controlled. Sometimes however, a momentum can be created which is difficult to stop and tensions can exacerbate into a war.

The timing of the signals is also important. According to Ha'aretz, senior Israeli ministers have said the International Atomic Energy Agency's report on Iran's nuclear programme, due to be released on November 8, will have a decisive effect on the decisions Israel makes.

'What's happening now between Jerusalem and Tehran is a war of signals and public threats,' say Issacharoff and Harel.

But, they add, 'it's the way the declarations are translated into actions at the International Atomic Energy Agency and the UN Security Council, and in Western capitals, that will dictate developments in the coming weeks.'