Iran election candidates choose discretion

FT.com -- With less than a month to go before Iran’s parliamentary election, candidates who back President Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad are keeping their allegiances secret.

The March 2 poll is set to be one of the most sensitive elections since the 1979 Islamic revolution. The results will reveal the winner of an unprecedented power struggle between those who support the president and those who back Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader.

This helps explain the secrecy attached to candidates' affiliations. The Guardian Council, the top electoral authority, vets candidates to check their loyalty to the regime and the supreme leader. It also approves the final tally of the ballot box. Candidates are choosing to be discreet rather than incur the council’s wrath and potentially be barred from standing or have their votes discounted.

Supporters of Ayatollah Khamenei, who has the last say in all state affairs, are open about their intentions. They largely operate within the United Fundamentalists Front, an umbrella group of candidates determined to put an end to the era of Mr Ahmadi-Nejad, in power since 2005. They fear Mr Ahmad-Nejad is eager to build a power base to rival the supreme leader. The president and his allies dismiss these allegations as unfounded.

The poll is critical for other reasons, too. The turnout could be seen as a test of the Islamic regime’s legitimacy. It will be the first vote since the disputed presidential election in 2009. Reformers questioned the results of that poll and there were widespread street protests. The poll could also set the platform for the presidential election in 2013. Mr Ahmadi-Nejad is not expected to stand.

“If there is a competitive and healthy atmosphere, people will vote for those who support the thinking of Mr Ahmadi-Nejad,” says Ali Akbar Javanfekr, a close ally of the president who runs the state news agency and its affiliated paper, Iran daily, of the coming parliamentary polls. Mr Javanfekr has been accused of insulting the supreme leader, sentenced to two years in jail and has appealed.

Despite their campaigns being carried out in secrecy, the Iranian government has been able to help Ahmadi-Nejad loyalists prepare for the election, analysts claim. Under Iranian law, the government cannot provide financial or logistical help for election hopefuls. Mr Javanfekr denies the government does so.

But political observers claim an election team affiliated to the president started to identify and finance loyalists some time ago. This team, they say, has focused on small constituencies and rural areas where the president enjoys strong support. This low-profile yet organised approach could help the supporters of Mr Ahmadi-Nejad run as independent candidates and win a considerable number of the 290 parliamentary seats, analysts say.

His opponents argue that the president promotes a “deviant current” which advocates a mix of radical Shiism and ultra-nationalism. This “deviant current” is similar to “a termite eating up the regime from within and its danger is much bigger than one can imagine”, said Mohammad Reza Bahonar, a deputy speaker in the parliament and a senior figure in the anti-president United Fundamentalists Front.

This “current” intends to separate Islam “without any coup” from the political establishment, Mr Bahonar added, but “we have to push them aside from power as much as we can”.

Mr Ahmadi-Nejad’s loyalists dismiss these concerns. “We are not a ‘deviant current’ and say it is an illusion and baseless,” says Mr Javanfekr. “Our understanding is that the ‘deviant current’ is raised to prevent the thinking of Mr Ahmadi-Nejad from spreading and having impacts on other power centres such as the legislative body.”

According to Mr Javanfekr, Mr Ahmadi-Nejad wants to revive the values of the Islamic revolution, strengthen contacts between people and officials and carry out development projects in deprived areas.

Mr Javanfekr denies any conflict between the two top figures. “The supreme leader is the main supporter of the government, while the president is loyal and obedient to him.”

Nonetheless, strong messages are being sent to Mr Ahmadi-Nejad as the election date approaches. The judiciary is planning to try 30 defendants – some of whom are linked to the president – in an embezzlement case shortly before the election. The parliament, for the first time since the revolution, has summoned the president to answer questions over his alleged mismanagement of the economy and disobeying the supreme leader. The meeting, which will take place one week after election day, could pave the way for a possible impeachment of Mr Ahmadi-Nejad.

“If Mr Ahmadi-Nejad supporters win the majority of seats, the current parliament may even impeach him,” says one analyst. “This may make the president’s candidates hide their affiliation until the new parliament convenes in June.”

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2012.