The ball is in Iran's court

Editor’s Note: Meir Javedanfar is an Iranian-Israeli Middle East analyst and the coauthor of The Nuclear Sphinx of Tehran: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and The State of Iran. He teaches the Contemporary Iranian Politics course at the Interdisciplinary Center, in Herzliya, Israel.

By Meir Javedanfar - Special to CNN

“Will Israel attack Iran?” That’s the question of the hour. Pundits and policymakers are asking it. But the real existential threat to Iran’s leadership lies elsewhere and the question we should be asking is: “Are the tough economic sanctions against Iran's central bank working?”

To Iran's rulers, regime survival is of utmost importance; there is nothing more important to them - not even the nuclear program. The Iranian regime can live and survive without its nuclear program. But it cannot survive without its economy.

In recent months, the value of the riyal has collapsed, portending greater troubles for Iran’s economy ahead. More and more countries are turning away from Iran to buy oil. This is bad news for the regime, which relies heavily on oil income.

Those countries that continue to import oil from Iran are taking advantage of its diplomatic isolation to squeeze it for all it’s worth. China has halved its monthly oil import from Iran and is demanding discounts on the other half. The Turks are asking Iran to reduce the price it charges for gas and are threatening to take Iran to the International Arbitration Court over this matter.

Iran's rulers are holding out - for now. They hope that the West will eventually get tired, relent and remove the sanctions. But this is unlikely to happen. As long as Iran refuses to cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and to clear up suspicion about its nuclear program, the West is unlikely to give up. This is not only because of Israeli pressure, as some pundits believe. There are other countries that are also very eager to isolate the Iranian government - most notably, France and the United Kingdom.

According to the Daily Telegraph, the British government begged the U.S. to allow its warship to pass through the Strait of Hormuz – alongside French and U.S. ships - to send a message to the Iranian government that the West wouldn’t be intimidated by its threats.

Members of the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council (PGCC) are also pressing hard for firm sanctions against the Iranian government. In addition, the Saudis have worked to offset the loss of Iranian oil on the international market to avoid a massive rise in oil prices. In short, the Saudis are stealing away Iran’s customers.

Now, sanctions have not been perfect. They have hurt many Iranian citizens. The prices of many goods have risen dramatically. But the potential impact of sanctions on the Iranian government make this cost worth it. It is a more viable solution in preventing a nuclear Iran than resorting to war

The sooner Iran works with the IAEA and gets a clean bill of health, the sooner the West can remove the sanctions. Until then the suspicions surrounding Iran's nuclear program justify the view of those who believe that the Iranian government is ultimately interested in making a bomb. A nuclear Iran would be a threat to Israel, an unacceptable one at best and an existential one at worst, and lead to a nuclear arms race in what is a very unstable region. These are scenarios which everyone in the west wants to avoid.

Compromise with the West is unlikely to be easy for Iran's most powerful man. It could damage the legitimacy of the regime, much of which is built on its anti-American rhetoric and stance.

This is why, in the long run, the Iranian regime needs to work with the IAEA. Instead of being seen to “capitulate,” Iran's leaders could instead cooperate with an international organization. Meanwhile, Western countries can work through the IAEA to verify the true nature of Iran’s nuclear program.

Iran's leaders would help themselves and the people of Iran by understanding the West's concerns. The West, including Israel, is not against Iran's right to have nuclear energy for peaceful purposes. They are against the Iranian regime having a nuclear bomb.

The views expressed in this article are solely those of Meir Javedanfar.

Source: http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2012/02/10/the-ball-is-in-irans-court/