How Going Nuclear Helps Iran's President

Sky News --- When Iran's president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, donned a white scientist's coat to show off his country's latest nuclear achievements, he knew the world would be watching.

But perhaps more important to him was his audience at home.

Mr Ahmadinejad needs to appear strong and defiant because he is a man in trouble.

And not only because of growing Western sanctions over his nuclear programme and the threat of a pre-emptive military strike from Israel.

His enemies overseas seem to scare him less than his enemies at home.

The President was an unpopular choice from the start in Iran, and a year away from the end of his final term in office, he is embroiled in an increasingly bitter internal power struggle.

The ultra-conservative supporters of the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, oppose him and everything he stands for.

In their eyes, Mr Ahmadinejad has "reformist" tendencies and threatens the future of Iran.

The Parliament - the Majles - is dominated by these ultra-conservatives and seems set on challenging Mr Ahmadinejad's every move.

There will be parliamentary elections next month that could see the Ayatollah's loyalists gain even more seats.

For Mr Ahmadinejad, keen to anoint his own successor for the presidency in 2013, the parliamentary vote could be a disaster unless he can change attitudes fast.

Some believe his own personal safety is even in danger, so it might be a battle for more than just his political life.

So he has resorted to the familiar tactic of thumbing his nose at the West, and the nuclear programme has long been a crucial element in that.

Many Iranians believe that their country has a right to nuclear power - even a nuclear weapon.

After all, Israel has one, they would say.

Iranians also bemoan Iran's fading influence in the region and enjoy the country being back on centre stage.

But the price of defiance is sanctions that are squeezing the economy and devaluing the Iranian currency, which can only add to internal instability and strife.

The key question for the world, and most of all Israel, is how much this domestic power struggle will influence Iran's decision-making over the next few critical months.

Iran, Western intelligence suggests, has yet to decide whether to build a nuclear weapon, even though it is clearly developing the capability to do so.

The country also needs to choose a strategy for dealing with the growing external pressure and sanctions.

The recent attacks on Israel embassies overseas - apparently linked to Iran - seem to indicate that Mr Ahmadinejad favours confrontation rather than negotiation.

But is that just posturing for internal consumption or is he really serious about pushing this issue so far that it could trigger a regional war?

It may not be his choice anyway, with the Ayatollah really wielding the power.

Israel says it is prepared to wait to give sanctions time to work before pursuing a military option, but it may not want to wait too long.