Hardline group emerges as Iran poll threat

Success for radical forces in Iran’s forthcoming parliamentary election could further fuel tensions between the Islamic regime and western powers over its nuclear programme, analysts warn, as the emergence of a hardline group threatens to complicate an already fraught poll.

Iranian voters will on March 2 go to the polls to choose candidates for the 290-strong parliament. The election is considered to be one of the most sensitive since 1979 as it is the latest expression of a power struggle between Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader, and President Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad.

The Iranian parliament has hardly any sway over the country’s foreign policies and the nuclear dossier. But whichever political faction wins will likely gain more influence on the supreme leader, who has the last say in all state affairs, including nuclear policies. In this context, the alignment of the country’s most radical forces under the Stability of Islamic Revolution Front has sparked concern.

The poll also comes as the US and European Union impose fresh financial and oil sanctions on the Islamic regime amid fears of a possible Israeli attack and concerns about the country’s nuclear programme. Fears are growing that hardliners may even favour a military confrontation, which they believe could boost their power at home and in the region.

The Stability Front is made up of former cabinet ministers, some current parliamentarians and religious zealots. Ayatollah Mohammad Taqi Mesbah-Yazdi, a hardline cleric based in the holy city of Qom, is reported to be the religious figure behind it.

“If the Stability Front, which is the extreme end of the fundamentalist camp, wins many seats, they would naturally push for radical foreign policies,” said Hamid-Reza Taraghi, a hardline politician who is close to more moderate forces. He expected the Stability Front to do “relatively well”.

The Stability Front adds to an already complicated electoral picture. It supports the supreme leader but some members used to serve in Mr Ahmadi-Nejad’s administration. It has also criticised Mr Ahmadi-Nejad, alleging the president has softened his approach to the West.

It is not clear whether their candidates – if they win – will choose to form a coalition with Mr Ahmadi-Nejad’s supporters. The current parliament is dominated by opponents of the president, many of whom will stand in the coming poll as the United Fundamentalist Front, an umbrella group for the supreme leader’s supporters and seen as less radical than the Stability Front.

The Stability Front – which is loyal to Ayatollah Khamenei – has refused to join the United Front. A sticking point has been the Stability Front’s belief that some of its members did not condemn strongly enough the grassroots opposition Green Movement, which took to the streets to demonstrate against the president’s poll victory in 2009, and have gone too far in their attacks on Mr Ahmadi-Nejad.

The two groups have many joint candidates across the country but they will compete for votes in large urban areas such as Tehran, where victory can secure the winner substantial political leverage.

Support for the United Front can help the political establishment distance itself from the radicalism of the Stability Front, Mr Taraghi said. “The Stability Front does not agree with us that everything should be within international regulations even in dealing with our enemies.” The Stability Front declined to comment to the Financial Times.

If the Stability Front is successful, analysts fear how the front could influence policy and what their tactics will be.

Their supporters are believed to have pushed for a cut in oil sales to all EU states to pre-empt the western bloc’s oil embargo on Iran which will be effective on July 1. Iran has so far only embarked on a largely symbolic cut in the country’s meagre supplies to Britain and France.

Hardliners ransacked the British embassy in December in protest against the UK sanctions over the country’s nuclear programme. The UK immediately pulled all staff from Tehran and ordered Iran’s diplomats in London to leave. The attack on the British embassy, which is believed to have dismayed the supreme leader, is said to have made the regime more cautious in its dealing with hardliners.

Events such as these fuel fears as to what success for the front will mean. “The Stability Front follows the supreme leader’s guidelines and cannot have a crucial role in policies but it can increase risks,” said Amir Mohebbian, an analyst close to the United Front.

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2012.