Iran’s elite counts on poor to erase bad memories

Iran’s 2009 election, which saw Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad returned to the presidency, was marred by allegations of fraud. Subsequent protests by reformists of the Green movement were violently crushed by the government.

But while supporters of the Green movement are dismissing Friday’s parliamentary vote as a sham, in Qarchak, 35km south-east of Tehran, people say they will be casting their ballots.

Residents of the town of 170,000, most of whom depend on agriculture and unskilled jobs in the nearby capital for their income, are broadly supportive of the Islamic regime, and are particularly grateful for the monthly cash payments the government has been handing out for the past year to compensate for the removal of subsidies on energy and food.

Like millions in Iran, each person in the town receives $37 a month. While the sum is too small to make a difference for those living in Tehran, particularly as international sanctions have sent prices soaring, for big families in Qarchak, the payments for each family member can together exceed the breadwinner’s monthly salary.

Marjan, a 33-year-old housewife in Qarchak, says the payment has helped her four-member family overcome the high rate of inflation, which officially stands at 21.6 per cent nationwide, although economists estimate it is probably double that. She praises Mr Ahmadi-Nejad for the payment. “I’ve seen how much very poor people adore him for the monthly cash,” she says.

For both Mr Ahmadi-Nejad and for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader, the turnout in this week’s election is crucial. With senior figures from the reformist Green movement in jail or facing the threat of arrest, and others boycotting the vote, the elections are essentially a competition between Iran’s hardliners.

The educated middle class in large cities like Tehran will stay away from Friday’s poll in an attempt to deny the regime the popular legitimacy it is seeking. But in places like Qarchak, Iran’s ruling establishment expects people to help erase the memories of the fraught 2009 vote.

One set of candidates is affiliated with the president, whose ambition now appears to be to challenge the supreme leader himself, while another is staunchly behind Ayatollah Khamenei. A third – the most hardline – straddles both groups.

Voters in Qarchak, however, seem unaware of the rivalries between Iran’s top politicians. “I have never heard that there is a difference between Mr Khamenei and Mr Ahmadi-Nejad,” says Maryam, a 34-year-old housewife.

Qarchak residents say they will be voting according to tribal affiliation and that their choices will be based on who will best address the economic and social problems they face, including high rent, unemployment and drug addiction.

A series of populist policies pursued by Mr Ahmadi-Nejad since 2005 has aggravated Iran’s long-standing problems of high inflation and unemployment. The tightening of international sanctions over the country’s nuclear programme and the subsequent devaluation of the country’s currency in recent months has exacerbated the economic problems.

Small and medium-sized factories are struggling with rising energy bills and the increasing cost of imports. The closure of some plants is leading to the loss of badly needed jobs, and youth unemployment stands at more than 26 per cent, according to government figures.

In Qarchak, some residents complain that young men without jobs stand idly in the streets, harassing girls and taking drugs.

But analysts say that poorer voters do not make the link between the government’s policies and the country’s economic woes, and are happy as long as the cash payments continue to meet rising prices for daily needs.

There are 16 candidates for a single seat in Qarchak. But the real competition is between two leading conservatives, one of whom is seen as supporting Mr Ahmadi-Nejad, and the other Mr Khamenei.

Maryam says she may vote for Hossein Naqavi, a parliamentary incumbent whom she praised for helping the poor, in particular by helping them secure cheap loans by writing letters of recommendation to banks during his occasional face-to-face meetings with constituents.

“If I know he is close to Mr Ahmadi-Nejad, I’ll be even more determined to vote for him,” she says.

Mr Naqavi’s main rival is Hossein Noushabadi, who was until recently Iran’s ambassador to Oman. He calls himself “the ambassador of service”, which suggests he is close to the president, who describes his government as being dedicated to providing ‘service’ to Iranians. Yet Mr Noushabadi is said by politically minded people in Qarchak to be affiliated to the supreme leader.

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2012.