Tensions With Iran: Accidents Can Happen

NYTimes.com — It is supposed to be a time of hope and new beginnings for the people of Iran as on Tuesday they began celebrating the 13-day New Year festival of Nowruz. But the omens are not good.

Trapped between the seeming intractability of their own government and the increasing bellicosity of its perceived enemies, they could be facing war before the next Nowruz comes around.

Israel’s leaders are pondering a possible pre-emptive strike against Iran’s nuclear installations, which they insist are being used to develop a nuclear bomb. Western officials are desperately hoping that economic sanctions will force Tehran to fold its hand in an increasingly risky game of diplomatic poker.

In the meantime, there is the ever-present threat that the region could stumble into war as a result of the unintended consequences of the heightened tension.

A U.S. war game this month forecast that an Israeli strike on Iran could lead to a wider regional war that could draw in the United States, as Mark Mazzetti and Thom Shanker report. They write:

“The two-week war game, called Internal Look, played out a narrative in which the United States found it was pulled into the conflict after Iranian missiles struck a Navy warship in the Persian Gulf, killing about 200 Americans, according to officials with knowledge of the exercise. The United States then retaliated by carrying out its own strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.”

But there are also fears a conflict could come about by accident.

The U.S. Navy has boosted its presence in the Persian Gulf in a gesture of minatory diplomacy to show Tehran the Obama administration means business. Four mine-sweeping vessels and mine-detecting helicopters will be the latest additions to the fleet.

The Navy is also adding new close-quarter weapons in case there is a clash at sea. “It’s like being in an alley with a rifle and maybe what you need is a sawed-off shotgun,” Admiral Jonathan W. Greenert, the chief of Naval Operations, explained when he announced the reinforcements last week.

The build-up could raise the risks of an accidental confrontation, although Adm. Greenert says he is determined that it won’t. As the two navies eye each other warily, he described his Iranian counterparts as “professional and courteous” mariners who operated “in accordance with the rules of the road.”

Ian Bremmer, who heads the political risk consultancy Eurasia Group, recently summed up a more negative scenario that could stem from Iran’s posture in the Persian Gulf. “More provocations in places like the Strait of Hormuz, which I believe is half a kilometer wide, actually narrower in some places, can lead to accidents. Those accidents can create market-moving events. They can create military conflict.

“Six months ago, the possibility of military conflict between the United States and Iran was negligible. In 2012, it is not negligible. It would be by accident, but it could happen.”

Accidents can happen. As Iranians head for the countryside to celebrate the coming of spring, they will not be alone in praying that, in this case, they don’t.