Iran Is Totally Psyched About The French Elections

Business Insider – News of the election of Francois Hollande as the president of France is going to be welcome in Tehran, where the outgoing chief, Nicolas Sarkozy, widely was considered to be the most pro-Israeli French president in history. Informed sources say that with the upcoming May 23 meeting in Baghdad to continue discussions on Iran's nuclear program,

Tehran is hoping for a more independent French position from that of the United States and the other so-called P5+1 members of China, Great Britain, Russia, the United States, plus Germany. Sarkozy was regarded as being in lock-step with the U.S. in pressing for sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program, which he and others in the West regard as being used to make nuclear weapons. Right now, relations between Paris and Tehran are at an all-time low and they would have grown worse if Sarkozy had won re-election, sources say.

Analysts believe that if France pursues a more independent approach from the U.S., Tehran will believe the U.S. is more serious about reaching a diplomatic solution to the nuclear impasse that has been going on for years, instead of posing a threat of a military attack on those nuclear facilities. "Because of Sarkozy's lack of credibility with Tehran, France has less than zero power of persuasion with Iran's leaders, who have time and again expressed their strong disapproval of Sarkozy's policy choices toward the Middle East, not to mention his and his party's behavior towards Muslims in France," said Kaveh L. Afrasiabi, an expert on Iranian foreign policy and author of "After Khomeini: New Directions in Iran's Foreign Policy."

A Hollande victory, said a University of Tehran professor who wanted to remain anonymous, could have a "disproportionate impact in the Middle East by bringing about a more independent European political approach that could extend to Germany and Italy next year, given that both countries have elections next year. And that spells trouble for Israel as well as the U.S. and its trans-Atlantic alliance."

Sarkozy has been viewed by many as pursuing a "divisive and elitist" political approach, as opposed to Hollande, who reflects more of the middle and working-class voters. "Compared with Sarkozy, who was completely sold to the American-Israeli pattern of coercive policy vis-à-vis Iran, Hollande is apt to pursue a markedly different track that emphasizes dialogue and cooperation as an incentive for eradicating escalating tensions," Afrasiabi told Asia Times. "If this rubs off on the rest of Europe and Iran begins to sense healthy new politics dominating the European scene, then it will be more amenable to show flexibility on the nuclear front."

For Israel, however, continued discussions only buy Tehran more time to develop a nuclear weapon, which it believes is the goal of its nuclear development program. Tehran's strategy is to stave off any military attack with what is expected to be compromises in the May 23 Baghdad meeting. It hopes to dust off its earlier proposal to send out to countries such as Turkey and Brazil and even Russia spent uranium for its reactors and import enriched uranium in exchange for halting its own uranium enrichment effort. Iran's uranium enrichment has been the source of consternation for the West and Israel, who believe the enrichment process is being geared toward developing nuclear weapons.

Right now, Iran can enrich up to 20 percent which is considered compatible for medical uses. It needs less than 20 percent to fuel its reactors. Iran insists that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes and it has a right as a signatory of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty to enrich uranium. However, Tehran is under pressure, even from its Russian and Chinese friends, to reach some kind of accommodation with the West to preclude a military attack that could greatly undermine an already sputtering global economy.

France/U.S.: Impact of Hollande's win on U.S. economy

The narrow victory by socialist Francois Hollande to be France's next president not only will affect ongoing discussions on very unpopular austerity programs to help bail out the Euro, but could impact the recovery in the United States, according to regional analysts. These sources say that the election's initial impact will be measured by the global financial markets in the coming weeks.

Hollande, who defeated Nicolas Sarkozy, had promised to roll back some of the deficit-cutting reforms that Sarkozy supported and voters felt were too austere. It will have an impact on the agreement that Germany had reached with Sarkozy in pursuing austerity programs. Experts believe, however, that the effects won't be severe immediately. These experts also point to a parallel between what is going on in Europe and the debate that is raging in the U.S. presidential elections between the more conservative elements pushing for more austerity and those who want more spending to lift the country out of a recession.

They add that Europe's financial problems will continue to have an impact on the U.S. stock markets and the ability of the U.S. to recover from its own economic problems, just as it has over the past two years. With the European Union being the largest trading partner of the U.S., any financial meltdown now would significantly cut U.S. exports and reduce U.S. factory production. U.S. banks also are expected to pull back on lending to preserve what cash they have due to what experts now expect to be a worsening financial crisis.