Moscow talks on Iran's nuclear programme in jeopardy

If the last round of Iranian nuclear talks in Baghdad were preceded by what turned out to be excessive optimism, the next round, due to take place in Moscow starting June 17, is suffering from the other extreme. Expectations are so low, the talks are in danger of not happening at all.

Iran has gone on a media offensive in the past few days, with both President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the chief negotiator, Saeed Jalili blaming the EU foreign policy chief, Catherine Ashton, of failing to make adequate preparations for the Moscow round.

According to the Mehr news agency, Jalili wrote to Ashton yesterday to complain about 'dithering':

The other side's delay in holding meetings between deputies and experts put into question their determination to hold positive negotiations in Moscow. The Islamic Republic of Iran, with a clear logic and definite initiatives, is ready to engage in forward-looking negotiations for cooperation.

European officials say they are ready to talk on the highest level, as long as it is about substance rather than mere protocol and process, and that Helga Schmid, Ashton's deputy tasked with arranging the talks, spelled this out in a letter to her Iranian counterpart, Ali Bagheri, in reply his initial message suggesting talks. But Bagheri wrote a second time, not acknowledging Schmid's letter, repeating his earlier language. A European official said:

Basically we have said to the Iranians we are ready to meet at whatever level required to talk about substance. We don't think it's necessary to have a meeting to talk about protocol and process. We are pushing for a Bagheri-Schmid call today and we have been offering direct contact between Jalili-Ashton for about a week. The lesson we learned in Baghdad is that we can't allow all the discussion to get taken up by protocol and process so that there is no time left for substance

The worrying signs here are that Tehran is going public with its gripes and not engaging directly with Ashton's office, which acts as convenor for a six-nation group representing the international community (US, UK, France, Germany, China and Russia). The tone of the Bagheri and Jalili letters is apparently quite declaratory, as if intended primarily for publication rather than negotiation. When things were going well, the Iranians kept the exchanges between Schmid and Bagheri secret, to the point, and businesslike.

This could mean that Tehran sees no future in the talks if a recognition of its right to enrich uranium and sanctions relief are not on the table as part of an initial deal. The six-nation group said in Baghdad that such issues would have to be part of a final settlement and have no place in an initial confidence-building agreement. The flurry of Iranian letters looks like an attempt to apportion blame in expectation of a breakdown. European diplomats are hoping that it is no more than gamesmanship and that Iran has too much at stake in the talks to walk out, not least the risk of angering the Russian hosts.

Source: THE GUARDIAN