Obama's Iran Policy Has Failed

Forbes

Last week, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad hosted a big summit of renegade nations in Tehran. Among the dignataries were the leaders of many of the states in the so-called Non-Aligned Movement, including Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez, Zimbabwe’s Robert Mugabe, North Korean bigshot Kim Yong Nam, and even Sudan’s Omar al-Bashir, who the International Criminal Court would like to see arrested for war crimes in Darfur.

None of these chaps care a wit about whether or not Iran gets a nuclear weapon. Neither do they pay any mind to the U.S. and European Union’s embargo on Iranian oil that went into effect July 1. Instead, they must have seen the confab as a sterling opportunity to buy or trade some cut-price Iranian crude.

Iran’s oil minister Rostam Ghasemi was quoted by Iranian state media outlet IRNA, saying: “Since 50 percent of the global market is held by the Non-Aligned Movement member states, we are negotiating with these countries.”

The oil-marketing extravaganza was given the stamp of legitimacy by U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon, who showed up to shake the hand of Ahmadinejad then delivered a speech condemning the insanity of his anti-Israel, Holocaust-denying screeds. You think Ban helped Ahmadinejad see the light? No, the Iranian president was probably too distracted by reports on the progress of uranium enrichment at the underground Fordow site to pay attention.

Ban’s speech was as effective as a high school teacher wagging her finger at a bunch of miscreants and exhorting them to respect their elders.

As for the sanctions brought by the U.S. and European Union seeking to block exports of Iranian oil? They’ve failed too.

No doubt international pressures have made it uncomfortable for Iran. Inflation is rampant, shortages of staples are hurting the Iranian people. Sanctions have helped reduce Iran’s oil production from 4.3 million bpd back in 2006 to about 2.8 million bpd in August (depending on who’s counting).

Buyers for Iranian oil did scurry off as sanctions took hold, with exports more than halving from 2.4 million bpd in 2011 to roughly 2 million bpd a few months ago, then down to 1.1 million bpd in July.

But a funny thing happened in August. If oil minister Qasemi’s comments last week are to be believed (and no one has disputed him yet), Iran’s exports recovered in August to 2 million bpd.

How? There’s plenty of countries, like those at the Tehran summit, which will continue to buy Iranian oil not just out of need, but almost out of sport.

Continue Reading: http://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2012/09/04/obamas-iran-policy-has-failed/2/