Is Israel softening its stance on Iran?

CBCnews

Don’t let Fall fool you. The mercury may not hit the high 30s anymore, but the sun is still blazing hot here in Jerusalem. This is, after all, the Middle East.

What has cooled down considerably is the political rhetoric over what to do with Iran and its nuclear program. Both Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his defence minister, Ehud Barak, are now less gung-ho about a pre-emptive strike against Iranian nuclear targets.

Netanyahu’s calmer tone was evident in an exclusive interview with CBC News from his Jerusalem office: “I think what is important is to realize that Iran will not stop unless it sees… a clear red line.”

The Israeli prime minister wants the United States and other world powers to define a “red line” that will force a new response that will provide guidelines on how to proceed with the Iranian regime. Netanyahu wants to know that there will be a threat of a pre-emptive strike if, for example, the Iranians keep enriching uranium.

“I don’t think they see a clear red line, and I think the sooner we establish one, the greater the chances that there won’t be a need for other types of action,” Netanyahu told CBC News.

Netanyahu, it seems, has been listening to the chorus of current and senior Israeli security officials, as well as the White House – who all say now is not the time for a unilateral Israeli strike against Iran. The prime minister has signaled a return to diplomacy with the regime in Tehran.

The other hawk in the Israeli government is also sounding more dovish these days. According to a report in the Israeli daily Haaretz, Ehud Barak now seems to favour holding off against taking action against Iran – at least until after the U.S. presidential election in November.
Iran accelerates nuclear program

This significant shift in tone comes despite yet another report from the UN’s nuclear watchdog, which says the Iranians are advancing their nuclear program.

The International Atomic Energy Agency’s findings last month show that Iran has installed three-quarters of the centrifuges needed to enrich uranium. The report also found that a site where explosive experiments were suspected of having been conducted has been cleansed to “significantly hamper” the ability of inspectors to determine what was going on there.

Yet there is information in the latest IAEA report to bolster the arguments of those who say it’s too early to strike Iranian targets. Many of the centrifuges installed at a key Iranian facility in Fordow are old and unreliable. Experts also say the Iranians do not have enough fuel to complete the production of a nuclear weapon.
A matter of trust

Because of the mounting pressure at home and from the United States, Netanyahu and Barak may be willing to give to Iran a little more time, but don’t for a second think either of them trusts the regime to live up to its promises about making its nuclear program more transparent.

Ephraim Inbar, an Israeli security analyst who directs the Began-Sedat Centre for Strategic Studies at Bar-Ilan University in Tel Aviv, thinks Netanyahu’s willingness to negotiate “red lines” represents a temporary climb-down.

“This would put at rest, for a while at least, Israeli concerns until a more durable arrangement can be carried out in which there will also be full [nuclear] transparency,” Inbar told CBC News last week.

The veteran Iran watcher, however, feels the time for talking with Tehran has run out. “Unfortunately, at this stage, the only real possibility to stop the Iranian nuclear program is use of force. We waited simply for too long,” Inbar says.

The Israeli public remains wary of any pre-emptive strike, despite the fact that Iran has dominated the headlines here in recent months. A recent public opinion survey found a majority of Israelis oppose any military strike against Iran without American cooperation.
Better safe than sorry

But the beating of the war drums by Netanyahu and Barak up until now has Israelis thinking about what-if scenarios. What if Israel strikes? What if Iran responds? What if missiles once again land in Tel Aviv?

It was enough to prompt grandmother Tierza Wurstberger to go down to the shopping mall in the Israeli city of Petah Tikva, to a temporary storefront set up by Israeli authorities to distribute gas masks.

Wurstberger picked up 21 masks – for free – for her husband, children and grandchildren.

“I don’t want a mask, but I want to be on the safe side,” she told me before asking one of the workers at the depot to help her carry 21 boxes to her car. “We don’t want to be damaged.”