Ahmadi-Nejad stokes controversy before poll

FT.com

Two months before Iran’s presidential elections, many of the leading candidates have yet to declare themselves. But one man’s suspected aspirations are provoking a political storm.

Esfandiar Rahim-Mashaei, friend, relative and top strategist to fundamentalist president Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad, is often described as a Machiavellian politician or as an alleged promoter of a cult. The 52-year-old has not yet declared that he is running in the June poll. But he is seen as part of a plan by the outgoing president (who cannot run for a third term) to extend his influence after he is out of office.

The prospect has angered those opposed to Mr Ahmadi-Nejad, who have been mobilising to prevent a Mashaei candidacy as part of one of the fiercest pre-election power struggles Iran has seen in decades. Their battle is thought to be supported by Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has tired of Mr Ahmadi-Nejad’s repeated disobedience.

The ayatollah is hoping the upcoming poll will erase the memory of flawed elections in 2009, when he supported Mr Ahmadi-Nejad against accusations of rigging that sparked the worst street unrest since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

Analysts in Tehran say he has three overriding concerns for the poll: a peaceful vote, a high turnout and a loyal winner. For this to succeed, he needs a credible contest, particularly at a time when Iran is under intense international pressure over its nuclear programme.

Mr Ahmadi-Nejad has been capitalising on sensitivities surrounding the poll, making it clear he will not go quietly and raising fears that the election could once again be marred by unrest.

He has vowed to stand against any “violation” in the electoral process, which analysts see as a clear warning to his opponents – who include members of the Guardian Council (a constitutional watchdog), the parliament, the judiciary and the elite Revolutionary Guards – that if they try to block his political ambitions, through Mr Mashaei, he could make public dossiers of their alleged corruption.

“This is a life-and-death struggle for Ahmadi-Nejad,” said Mohammad-Sadegh Javadi-Hesar, a reformist analyst. “The president knows his opponents have decided to end his political life with the end of his presidential terms.”

Mr Mashaei and Mr Ahmadi-Nejad developed their close political bonds over decades of friendship that were further strengthened by the marriage of Mr Mashaei’s daughter to Mr Ahmadi-Nejad’s son.

They have already been appearing together in campaign mode at public gatherings. “We have to prepare ourselves for a new brilliant era in the country,” Mr Mashaei said on Monday, in clear reference to the presidential election.

Whether Mr Mashaei has any real popularity is unclear. He has been appealing to younger voters and reformists by courting film stars and highlighting his nationalist credentials, although he has had to backtrack on comments describing the magnificence of pre-Islamic Iran after he was attacked by hardline opponents as promoting Persian culture at the expense of Islamic civilisation.

But if allowed to run he could capitalise on the president’s standing in rural areas by continuing his policy of cash handouts to the poor.

The president’s opponents charge Mr Mashaei leads what they term a “deviant current” or “cult” that uses magic and superstition to make political decisions and combines radical religious and nationalist beliefs that aim to eventually take over “management of the world”. They also claim in private that Mr Mashaei and the president feel connected to the last Shia Imam, the Mahdi, who went into occultation in 941 but will come back to bring justice to the world.

As election day looms, Mr Ahmadi-Nejad’s opponents are hoping to prevent Mr Mashaei from standing. Registration for candidates takes place between May 7 and 11, after which the Guardian Council, which opposes the president, verifies the candidates’ ‘commitment to the Islamic establishment’ and their loyalty to Ayatollah Khamenei.

If Mr Mashaei is approved, there remain opportunities for his opponents to prevent his success. Although the interior ministry, which is accountable to Mr Ahmadi-Nejad, is responsible for running the election and counting votes, the Guardian Council must then approve the results.

In another bid to block a potential Mashaei win, forces loyal to the supreme leader’s candidates have set up a so-called “coalition for progress” consisting of Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf, Tehran mayor, Ali-Akbar Velayati, former foreign minister and Gholam-Ali Haddad Adel, former parliamentary speaker.

The three – who take frequent opinion polls to gauge who is more popular – have vowed that only one of them will run to avoid splitting the vote against any pro-president candidate.

Reformists – who have been purged from the political establishment and heavily repressed since they were swept from the streets of Tehran in the 2009 unrest – may have a chance to introduce a candidate, but are unlikely to field someone senior enough – such as former president Mohammad Khatami – to be able to defeat the hardliners.

Should a strong reformist candidate emerge, however, his candidacy could paradoxically work to Mr Mashaei’s advantage.

“In a choice between Khatami and Mashaei, the regime would choose Mashaei,” said a political analyst. “The regime has serious ideological differences with reformists, but is in a power struggle with the president’s team which means Mashaei could be allowed to run.”