Iran reformists urged to run in election

Financial Times

Two former Iranian presidents, Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani and Mohammad Khatami, are under increasing pressure from moderates to run in the June presidential election, say their aides.

Hossein Marashi, Mr Rafsanjani’s former chief of staff and a close ally of the 78-year-old conservative former president, said the possibility that one of the two politicians might run and enjoy the support of the other one had increased to “50 per cent” in recent weeks.

“Mr Rafsanjani’s office is very busy these days,” Mr Marashi told the Financial Times. “Various social groups, from Friday prayer leaders to labourers, are urging him to run.”

An ally of Mr Khatami, who asked not to be named, confirmed that the 70-year-old former reformist president was also weighing up his candidacy and was personally willing to run on June 14.

But analysts believe the pair will announce their candidacy only if Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader, who has the final say in all state affairs, guarantees that a victory would not be blocked by forces under his command, notably the Revolutionary Guards.

Reformists believe the elite force “engineers” – a code name for rigging – final election results. There is no sign yet that Ayatollah Khamenei is ready for such a compromise, even though supporters of the former presidents are trying to rally public support and make it difficult for the top leader to reject it at a sensitive time.

Iran’s next presidential election is the first since the disputed poll in 2009 that led to the biggest unrest against the regime since the revolution in 1979. More than 100 people died after the opposition Green Movement alleged the re-election of Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad was a result of widespread fraud.

Since then, the regime has jailed and purged reformists from the political hierarchy, put two opposition leaders – Mir-Hossein Moussavi and Mehdi Karroubi – under house arrest, imposed a travel ban on Mr Khatami and prevented Mr Rafsanjani from leading the main Friday prayers in the capital because of his support for the opposition.

Meanwhile, Iran is struggling with rocketing inflation, which is officially at 28.7 per cent but believed to be much higher, and a fall of the rial of more than half, since last year after the tightening of international sanctions over the country’s nuclear programme.

Ayatollah Khamenei said last month that the country needed an “epic political and economic year”, and analysts believe he is seeking a peaceful election with a high turnout that will return a winner who is loyal and capable of tackling economic woes.

He added that “all” political groups could have a candidate in the election, which immediately raised hopes among reformists that they could run.

Some reformists believe this is a trap for them to help increase turnout during the election without winning because the regime would hand power only to a fundamentalist president. Others say reformists should seize the chance to participate, even if it is meant to legitimise the poll.

Mr Ahmadi-Nejad, who cannot run for a third term, has fallen foul of the regime for his alleged disloyalty to the supreme leader. But he wants an ally to replace him so that he can retain his political influence, which is something his powerful opponents are determined to prevent.

Moderate reformists hope the power struggle could help them return to the political hierarchy. “Both Khatami and Hashemi [Rafsanjani] seek to improve reformists’ relations with the ruling regime and replace radicalism with reform,” Mr Marashi said.

“Mr Hashemi needs to be sure that he would have enough authority to reform political and economic structures so that they can last for some decades,” he said. “At the age of 78, he does not want to spend the last years of his life fighting.”

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2013.