Iran president’s rally looks like own goal

No football match was scheduled for Thursday afternoon, but President Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad still expected large crowds at the Azadi, Iran’s biggest football stadium.

The national stadium can hold 100,000 people, and Mr Ahmadi-Nejad, due to step down after presidential polls on June 14, was widely expected to use the rally to back a close ally in his race for the presidency.

But the fact that the stadium was little more than half-empty suggested that he had made a mistake – one that might cost him dearly. If he has no popular support, then his opponents at the elite Revolutionary Guards, parliament and judiciary know they have little to lose by opposing him or his favoured candidate, Easfandiar Rahim-Mashaei, his former chief of staff.

“Mr Ahmadi-Nejad should actually be allowed to have his best candidate in the election so it becomes a public fact that he has little popularity,” observed one political analyst.

The event on Thursday was officially staged to thank the thousands of people who had helped ease travel during the Persian new year holidays, or Norouz, from late March to early April. But speculation was rife that such a large state-sponsored gathering was an attempt by the president to present himself as a champion of Persian heritage and Iranian nationalism, and to use it as a platform to promote Mr Mashaei to replace him.

Most of the roughly 60,000 people at the stadium, in western Tehran, had been bused in from other provinces. This was despite the fact that there were large placards around Tehran advertising the event.

Those at the Azadi stadium, who had travelled overnight or slept in buses in the car park, were exhausted and hungry. “Lunch! Lunch!” they shouted when officials addressed the crowd.

Authorities quickly distributed some sausage sandwiches, but not enough to satisfy those who expected a decent meal of rice and chicken after their journey to the capital. The presenters, a man and a woman clad in black Islamic cover, struggled to make people laugh with their jokes.

Before the gathering, local media suggested the meeting was illegal because the president was using state money to back Mr Mashaei’s candidacy. The government denied it. The election watchdog, the Guardian Council, said it would disqualify any candidate who mis-used state assets – a clear reference to the gathering in the Azadi stadium. In the end, Mr Mashaei did not show up, possibly because of the low turnout.

The council is increasingly expected to disqualify Mr Mashaei on the grounds that he is not loyal to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader, who has the last say in all state affairs. It is an open secret that Mr Ahmadi-Nejad and his entourage are not unconditionally obedient to the top leader.

Mr Ahmadi-Nejad has vowed to stand against any “violation” in the electoral process – a coded threat that he would not accept disqualification of Mr Mashaei. He is said to hold corruption dossiers on his opponents, which he could make public if his ally is blocked.

In a clear attempt to disarm the Guardian Council, speakers at the event repeatedly paid tribute to the supreme leader. Horseback riders carried the Iranian flag and a framed photograph of Ayatollah Khamenei. Whether such steps will help Mr Mashaei – or any other candidate linked to the president – to win permission to run remains to be seen.

By the end of the three-hour ceremony, hardly anyone was left to listen to his speech. “Long live Iran, long live justice, long live love and affection and long live the Iranian nation’s flag,” the outgoing president said to an almost empty stadium.

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2013.