No clear frontrunner for Iran presidency

FT.com

The process of choosing Iran’s next president kicks off on Tuesday, when hopefuls will be able to register their potential candidacy for next month’s election amid a tense power struggle that has made predicting frontrunners tricky.

From Sunday, the Guardian Council, the constitutional watchdog, will have 10 days to pick the candidates from those who register. The council uses a strict vetting procedure in which loyalty to the Islamic regime and its supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is the top criterion.

As such, hopefuls from the main pro-regime camp could include Tehran mayor Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf, Ali-Akbar Velayati, a former foreign minister, and possibly Iran’s top nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili.

One potential rival to those above would be Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a conservative and influential former president who has been campaigning to end President Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad’s populist policies, which he argues are harming the Iranian economy and foreign relations. He has neither ruled out the possibility of running nor said he would enter the race. Mr Rafsanjani said on Monday that without the green light from Ayatollah Khamenei, a return to the presidential role would result in fighting rather than progress.

His guarded response and a lack of clarity over other potential rivals complicates the ability of the main pro-regime camp to build an election strategy of either mobilising behind one candidate to rival Mr Rafsanjani, or entering many candidates – a move more suited to having no senior reformist opponents, analysts said.

“If Mr Rafsanjani runs, [pro-supreme leader] fundamentalists will come with one strong candidate to defeat him, otherwise they will have at least four or five candidates,” said Mohammad-Sadegh Javadi-Hesar, a political analyst.

Reformist politicians, the business community and labourers support a return to power for either Mr Rafsanjani or another former president Mohammad Khatami, believing they would be more likely to push for a compromise in long-stalled diplomatic talks over Iran’s nuclear programme, and turn around an economy that has been crippled by populist policies and international sanctions.

But Heydar Moslehi, Iran’s intelligence minister, warned both former presidents last week that they were not qualified to return to office and levelled his sharpest criticisms against Mr Rafsanjani who he alleges “created” the 2009 street protests and “played a significant role” in them.

Should Mr Rafsanjani or Mr Khatami decide not to run, they may throw their weight behind one or two moderate reformist or conservative candidates.

Meanwhile, President Ahmadi-Nejad, who must step down having served two terms, looks unwilling to give up on ambitions to have a close ally to replace him. Iran’s president has intensified his provincial visits and promises of more cash handouts to the poor, in a clear move to promote his former chief of staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashaei, his preferred candidate who has accompanied him on recent trips.

But domestic media have reported that his visits generate only small crowds, probably in protest to the economic hardship they are suffering, particularly inflation of 32.2 per cent.

Political observers still doubt Mr Mashaei could pass the Guardian Council’s filtering mechanism as the president’s team have fallen foul of the regime for their alleged disloyalty to the supreme leader.

On Sunday, the president said in the northwest city of Orumieh: “Some believe they have more rights than others and are masters and owners of people.” He added that such beliefs are not healthy because it is “idol worshipping”.

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2013.