To vote or not is the question as Iran poll looms

Many of Iran’s reform-minded voters had been determined to boycott Friday’s presidential election, the first since the 2009 vote that they say was stolen from them.

On the eve of the poll, however, they were no longer sure what to do. In the last few days, Hassan Rohani, a mild-mannered cleric who used to be Iran’s top nuclear negotiator, has changed some people’s calculations, winning backing from important figures in the reform movement.

Maryam, a 38-year-old housewife, said she can’t forget how she felt physically sick after the 2009 vote: “I still can’t get myself to vote again.”

But for Majid, a 44-year-old computer engineer, voting has become an imperative. He plans to cast a ballot and is pushing his parents to also vote for Mr Rohani.

“We have no other choice but to vote,” he said. “The economic situation will get even worse if a hardliner is elected.”

Mr Rohani has injected enthusiasm in an election that had been carefully choreographed to ensure the smooth election of a regime loyalist.

The vetting process by the Guardian Council, a constitutional body, early on eliminated possibly the strongest candidate: the reformist-backed Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, who could have posed a challenge to the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Mr Rafsanjani this week threw his backing behind Mr Rohani, as did Mohammad Khatami, the former reformist president.

After a short three-week campaign, the race appeared on Thursday to be settling down to three main candidates: Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf, the Tehran mayor, Saeed Jalili, the current top nuclear negotiator, and Mr Rohani.

If none of them draw more than 50 per cent of the vote, the top two candidates will go to a runoff in a week’s time.

Mr Jalili was at first the clear frontrunner and presumed favourite of Mr Khamenei. But observers in Tehran say his defiant rhetoric failed to inspire voters. His lack of experience in economic management at a time of enormous economic pain (partly due to international sanctions aimed at Iran’s controversial nuclear programme) also appears to have diminished his chances and lifted the prospects of Mr Qalibaf, a former commander of the elite Revolutionary Guard.

“It is ideal [for the regime] if one fundamentalist wins in the first round or if two fundamentalists [Mr Qalibaf and Mr Jalili] go to a second round,” said Amir Mohebbian, a commentator close to the conservatives, who insisted, however, that the regime would also tolerate even a Rohani election.

Although the presumption is that they are engineered, Iranian elections do have an element of real competition, particularly as the supreme leader likes to have a high turnout to demonstrate the legitimacy of the Islamic system.

The turnout, however, will depend on how many reformists decide to vote. To prevent a repeat of the youthful euphoria that turned into unrest four years ago, the regime has kept a close lid on public rallies this time. Police have had a heavy presence throughout in Tehran, particularly around meetings held by Mr Rohani.

The rallies that have been held have had none of the buzz of the 2009 election and opposition supporters have been careful by and large not to chant any anti-regime slogans.

The regime will be directing the votes of the Basij, the youth militia, towards its favourite candidates, as happened in 2005 when the radical Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad swept the presidential vote. But senior commanders of the Revolutionary Guard, who have been a main election tool over the past decade, appear to be divided this time between Mr Jalili and Mr Qalibaf.

The reformist Green Movement was crushed after the 2009 unrest, the worst since the foundation of the Islamic Republic in 1979, and many of its leaders are either in jail or under house arrest.
"Even if the election is polarised between a fundamentalist and a reformist, the regime has no problem and can tolerate the presidency of Hassan Rohani"

- Amir Mohebbian, a commentator close to the conservatives

“The radicals in the regime believed they had controlled the Green Movement and the reformists and claimed both of them were dead. On the contrary, this election showed that their demands, concerns and hidden hopes are still there,” said Hamid-Reza Jalaeipour, a sociologist and reformist politician.

Analysts question whether the regime will take the risk of allowing Mr Rohani past the first round of voting. His chances will also depend on whether the young, urban, middle class voters who are the main reformist constituency decide to vote.

Young supporters of Mr Rohani on Wednesday evening were doing their best to convince reform-minded passersby to do exactly that and not to dismiss the poll as a charade. Thousands of Rohani supporters also marched, chanting: “Reforms, reforms, the winner of the election”.

Additional reporting by Monavar Khalaj in Tehran

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2013.