Israel's military experts open up on Hezbollah, Iran and peace talks

The second part of Ron Ben-Yishai's conversation with the four heads of Israeli Military Intelligence research and analysis division. Click here for the first part - in which two "theater" commanders discuss Egypt and Jordan, and the Palestinians.

Here, Roi and Dudi discuss the challenges posed by Hezbollah and Lebanon, and the regional as a whole.

Roi: There's no doubt that the most important event has been Hezbollah's involvement in Syria's civil war. This didn't begin last year, but it has grown. In the coming months or year, we'll look at the implications of this involvement on stability in Lebanon. This is important because the breakdown of order in Lebanon comes with the potential for very dramatic regional change, and this of course would be radiate outwards to us.

Already today a significant part of the Global Jihad that we see in Syria is spilling over to Lebanon. According to a UN report, there are hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees inside Lebanon today. I'd like to remind you that Lebanon is a country of four million and something residents, who have to live with close to one million Syrian refugees.

What could happen as a result of this?

Roi: A shift in the ethnic ratios in Lebanon between Sunni and Shia Muslims. But for the most part I'm mainly concerned about the phenomenon of the Jihadist fighter and the Salafist Jihadist entering Lebanon and taking part in unprecedented activities. Who would ever have imagined that a car bomb would explode next to the Iranian embassy in the heart of Beirut? Who would ever have thought to fire rockets at Shi'ite towns in the Bekaa Valley… who has ever dared do that to Hezbollah?

And the implications for us?

Roi: The trickle of Global Jihad along our borders may very well increase the threat level. This is relevant to our northern front in general, and most certainly the border with Lebanon, which has been stable up to this point. Now we are beginning to see attempts to engage forces on the northern front, the Golan Heights and of course Har Dov, and this will only expand.

Did support for Shi'ite Hezbollah diminish following the deaths of hundreds in Syria?

Roi: Our impression at least is that the relationship between the organization and the community from which it comes, on which it leans, is still tight and strong.

I understand that Hezbollah has financial issues.

Roi: Yes of course. Funding problems just like the rest of us. The sanctions against Iran, Iranian aid to Assad and the war in Syria affect Hezbollah's funds.

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