The Power Struggle Continues

As soon as Hassan Rouhani was elected president in Iran in 2013, many expected that this would launch a new wave of flush outs within the regime. This based on the view that Iran’s supreme leader was forced to choose Rouhani. The new president presented himself as a moderate with the aim of changing the country’s domestic and foreign policies.

But the reality is that Mr. Khamenei could not have stopped Rouhani’s ascent. He could have disqualified him without difficulty. Instead, he saw the cleric as an opportunity to rebuild some of the country’s relations with the world. And even though the supreme leader was not deeply interested in fundamentally changing Tehran’s foreign policy, he embarked on this change because he was clearly concerned that the international sanctions that were beefing up against the country by the month would ultimately disconnect the people from the regime.

In the Persian year that ended on March 21st, Rouhani and Khamenei focused on issues on which they had no differences, and to a large degree they succeeded. Rouhani focused on Iran’s foreign relations and succeeded in striking a temporary deal with the West over its controversial nuclear program. And even though some of Khamenei’s closest aides did not agree with the agreement, the supreme leader supported it. This was enough to sign off on the agreement. ON the domestic front, however, Rouhani has been more cautious. He does not want to get into a public fight with the leader, something that plagued the two former presidents Khatami and Ahmadinejad.

This uncomfortable coexistence at the top leadership in Iran’s political system has become quiet unnerving. It appears that Rouhani actually does want to move in the direction where his moderate faction challenges some of the views of the traditionalists that are dear to Khamenei. The latest example of this is the battle over the role of women in Iran. On the international women’s day (March 8) Khamenei called gender equality a Western idea and foreign to Islamic culture. Immediately after these remarks, Rouhani and his close allies, including Hashemi Rafsanjani, countered with an opposing view and called for such equality. The moderates in Iran took note.

There are those in Iran who do not view such posturing to be merely tactical. They see them as examples that indicate that Rouhani’s strategic goals have changed. Mohammad Ali Jaafari, the commander of the Revolutionary Guards for example made his views on the issue very clear. “Some people do not openly show their core goals,” he said. Everyone understood who those “some people” were. Last week, he continued on his theme and warned of “The dangers in those whose goal is a secular regime.”

To remain credible, Rouhani told his critics last year that, “The supreme leader concurred with his goals.” But just these recent exchanges between Khamenei’s views and those of Rouhani on the issue of women indicates that in the near future, these two may not actually be on the same page.

Rooz Online