Force Iran to Make a Choice

The United States and other world powers extended the deadline to reach a comprehensive final agreement with Iran over its controversial nuclear program to November 24, 2014. The Obama administration not only gave Iran significant sanctions relief under the initial six-month interim deal, but also is offering comprehensive sanctions relief for a final diplomatic breakthrough. The regime in Tehran, however, remains unwilling to eliminate its illicit nuclear infrastructure, disclose all civil and military nuclear efforts in the past, and allow “anytime, anyplace” inspections. It’s now time for President Obama to work with Congress to back up nuclear diplomacy with decisive forms of non-military pressure like sanctions-in-waiting.

The failure to reach an agreement with Iran indicates that the international community has not established enough non-military pressure on Iran’s leaders. This shouldn’t be surprising, however, given that the interim agreement’s short-term sanctions relief package allowed Iran’s economy to rally back from its sharp downturn in 2012 and 2013.

While the White House estimated that short-term sanctions relief would only amount to $7 billion, a new study from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and Roubini Global Economics shows that $11 billion has been restored to Iran’s economy over the past six months. The study estimates that Iran’s GDP will even grow by 2 percent in fiscal years 2014 and 2015. It adds that sanctions relief “helped Iranian authorities build up resilience against future shocks” because they have accumulated reserves and savings to help offset the implementation of new sanctions rather than focus on maximizing economic growth. In short, leverage on Iran has been lost.

Expanded non-military pressure, in the form of crippling sanctions-in-waiting, now can help restore and increase America’s leverage on Iran in diplomatic talks. Under intense pressure from the White House, however, the Senate’s majority leader has refused so far to allow any debate or consideration of legislation to support nuclear diplomacy with more non-military pressure on Iran. One pending measure is the Nuclear Weapons Free Iran Act (S. 1881), co-authored by Sens. Robert Menendez, D-N.J., and Mark Kirk, R-Ill., and supported by 60 senators. The bipartisan bill, which Menendez describes as a “diplomatic insurance policy against Iran,” authorizes crippling sanctions against energy exports and other key elements of the Iranian economy, but only if Iran violates its commitments under the interim deal or fails to negotiate for a final deal in good faith.

At the same time, Congress also should take the opportunity to continue clearly outlining what terms are acceptable in a final agreement. In a bipartisan letter co-authored by House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Ed Royce, R-Calif., and Ranking Member Eliot Engel, D-N.Y., 342 House lawmakers reminded Obama that the United States would be “obligated under the law” to come to Congress for legislation in order to relieve sanctions under a final agreement, and that such an agreement “will have to pass muster with Congress.”

Sens. Menendez and Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., also recently took an important step toward defining the terms of what constitutes an acceptable deal. In a bipartisan draft letter, they call for establishing an intrusive inspections and verifications regime of Iran’s nuclear facilities that will last for at least 20 years after a final deal is signed. This is important because Tehran, for decades, has refused to give international inspectors the authority required not only to ensure that Iran’s program is exclusively peaceful, but also to clear up its nuclear program’s military dimensions, including activities related to detonating a nuclear explosive and developing a nuclear payload for a missile.

Testifying before the House Foreign Affairs Committee last month, former International Atomic Energy Agency Deputy Director General and Head of Safeguards Olli Heinonen, outlined the steps that Iran must take to allow the agency to prove that Iran’s program is exclusively peaceful. Tehran, he said, must “provide the IAEA with unconditional and unrestricted access to any and all areas, facilities, equipment, records, people, materials including source materials” to verify the correctness and completeness of Iran’s declarations. He emphasized that in the case of South Africa — which voluntarily denuclearized in 1993 — the International Atomic Energy Agency needed 17 years to verify that the country’s program was fully declared and exclusively peaceful. It will take far, far longer than 20 years to do the same in Iran.

Recent statements by Iran’s leaders, however, have shown that the rogue regime remains committed to keeping a substantial nuclear weapons-making capability under any final agreement. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said in a July 7 speech that Iran would need to dramatically increase its capability to 190,000 centrifuges. Mark Fitzpatrick of the International Institute for Strategic Studies conceded that the ayatollah’s statement showed that Iranian negotiators “are not authorized to accept cutbacks to the enrichment program.”

At this juncture, it’s critical that the Obama administration understand that a bad deal is worse than no deal. Congress should make clear to the White House that Iran must not be allowed to have nuclear weapons-making capability. Lawmakers should insist that Iran fully dismantle its illicit nuclear infrastructure, with the aim of irreversibly blocking any uranium or plutonium path to a nuclear weapon. An intrusive, long-term inspections and verifications regime will allow the International Atomic Energy Agency to provide credible assurance that Iran does not have the ability to overtly or covertly build nuclear explosives. These high standards are vital to ensure that the country cannot “break out” or “sneak out” of international inspections and get a nuclear bomb.

In his 2014 State of the Union address, President Obama said that negotiations with Iran “do not rely on trust,” adding, “any long-term deal we agree to must be based on verifiable action that convinces us and the international community that Iran is not building a nuclear bomb.” He concluded: “If Iran’s leaders do not seize this opportunity, then I will be the first to call for more sanctions, and stand ready to exercise all options to make sure Iran does not build a nuclear weapon.” Iran should be made to face a choice: abandon its drive to nuclear weapons, or suffer decisive and crippling sanctions. By advancing sanctions-in-waiting, the president and Congress can make sure that Iran faces such a choice.