Isis extends its reach but the roots of other groups go deeper

In recent weeks, every major terrorist assault has brought with it questions about the possible involvement of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, the group known as Isis. The truth is that, in many countries in the Muslim world, Isis may have sympathisers but it does not yet have well-established roots.

Last week in Chechnya, it seemed that the Russian province’s third war in recent memory had broken out when Chechen militants stormed a building in central Grozny, the capital. The attack paralysed the city and killed about 20 people, including 10 police officers. Soon after, Russian media suggested that Isis was responsible, alleging that hundreds of Chechens are fighting for the group in Syria and Iraq.

In India, the media have expressed concerns that Isis may have laid down roots in that country’s cities. There are fears that it may be linked to Pakistani groups fighting Indian forces in the disputed territory in Kashmir.

Those concerns were strengthened on November 27 when militants attacked an Indian army base in Kashmir, killing 17 people. Nobody claimed responsibility for the attack, making it easy to blame Isis.

Meanwhile, in Pakistan, while some local Taliban militants have pledged loyalty to Isis, there are dozens of active terrorist groups with political affiliations that go back decades. Isis is hardly needed to foment jihad. Instead, the organisation’s connections with Pakistan are likely opportunistic, treating the country as a recruiting ground for the fight in Syria while local jihadis hope to benefit financially from connections with the well-heeled foreigners.

The truth is that, rather than an omnipresent enemy, Isis is the latest fad among Islamic militants. Its commitment to jihadi Islam, its brutal methods and the prospect of building a new kind of state are exciting to some and have fuelled its popularity. Its current status is comparable to that of al-Qaeda after the attacks of September11 2001, when copy cat jihadis and militant groups everywhere clamoured to demonstrate a special relationship with the newly notorious terrorist group.

Well before the attacks, however, al-Qaeda had spent nearly 20 years building up contacts and cells in Sudan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen and Saudi Arabia. It had taken part in the war against the Soviets in Afghanistan. The organisation had developed deep roots, recruiting local militants to run their franchises, training bomb makers and marrying into local communities.

The history of Isis goes back to the war that followed the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, when militants led by Abu Musab al Zarqawi adopted the al-Qaeda franchise. Its incredible success in the past 12 months has so far been confined to Iraq and Syria, where political chaos and a civil war have created fertile conditions for expansion. Isis may have 18,000 foreign fighters from 90 countries in its ranks, according to US officials, but it has no roots in India, Pakistan, Central Asia or north Africa — at least not yet.

New jihadi groups such as Isis often find it difficult to garner support in regions where longstanding local Islamic groups have been fighting for years. Pakistan, Afghanistan and Chechnya have been awash with similar groups for the past four decades. They have no need or desire to surrender leadership, manpower and finances to an outsider such as Isis, no matter how prestigious it may be at the moment.

The unprecedented atrocities carried out by Isis are an inspiration to others and this is a real concern. But the problem is that intelligence agencies are now looking for Isis under every bed.

The truth — mercifully — is that it has not yet arrived. But what remain present are extremist groups with deep roots in the local soil, and these are just as dangerous.

The writer is author of several books about Afghanistan and Pakistan, including
‘Pakistan on the Brink’

FT.com