Friday 09 January 2015

'Geriatric Kingdom' under threat by Iran and IS

Saudi Arabia has in recent years earned the description of a "geriatric kingdom." King Abdullah and the 34 princes who make up the family council (Trusteeship Council) are mostly elderly, some sick, who find it difficult to function. Abdullah himself is 91 years old and a few days ago it was officially announced that he was treated for pneumonia and breathing difficulties. The former crown prince and defense minister for 25 years, Prince Sultan Abdul Aziz, died of cancer four years ago and his successor, Prince Nayef, also died two years ago. Another brother who was was appointed to succeed them, Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, will soon be 80 and is in poor health.

The age of the Saudi leadership is a heritage of arrangements established by King Ibn Saud, founder of the kingdom, in 1932. He had 18 children from several women and he therefore decreed that the monarchy would not pass from father to son, as is common in monarchies, but from one brother to another, usually according to age. Ibn Saud himself was succeeded by five of his sons, all stepbrothers, one after the other.

The age and health of the Saudi “royal nursing home" is a political issue of prime importance. It creates the impression of an unstable regime composed of a bunch of old men who can be easily pushed around in the storms of the post-Arab Spring era and the upheavals of power in Arab states. The most severe threat to Saudi Arabia is Shiite Iran eyeing the northern oil fields of Saudi Arabia where the world's largest oil reserves, as well as a large Shi’ite population, lie. Saudi Arabia, the superpower of Sunni Islam, is supposed to be the bulwark against the threat of Shiite Iran.

Another threat to Saudi Arabia are terrorist groups, led by the Islamic State that established the Islamic caliphate across the porous border between Iraq and Syria, and recently dispatched units to the Saudi border. The Saudis have become vulnerable to terrorism by joining the international US-led coalition fighting IS.

Faced with these threats, Saudi spokesmen remain confident. The 91-year-old king is indeed sick, but functions well, they say, as are a group of consultants and the princes who surround him. Saudi Arabia has a well-trained army and a well-stocked arsenal, but the strongest guarantor of its security is its relationship with the United States, which has a strong interest in protecting the Saudi regime. Saudi Arabia has sophisticated public security organs which have so far averted any attempts to undermine the regime. Saudi rulers also know how to maintain the economic well-being of their population, believing as they do that people who prosper do not plan to coups.

There is no doubt that behind the scenes, royal succession struggles are taking place. Meanwhile, the old and sick Prince Salman is the apparent heir, but it is clear that the Family Council will soon have to choose a succession candidate among the younger grandchildren.

These struggles do not hamper, for the time being, the successful management of Saudi policy. Saudi Arabia is largely responsible for the dramatic drop in oil prices, to less than $50 a barrel. This, of course, reduces the revenues of the kingdom, but causes untold damage to the deteriorating economy of the Iranian enemy. The Americans are also partners in this policy that is causing a severe economic crisis in Russia.

The Saudis were the mainstay of the economic and political military rule in Cairo, which ousted Mohammed Morsi from power and pursued the Muslim Brotherhood - old rivals of Saudi Islam. Saudi Arabia was also able to further curb the principality of Qatar, the only Gulf state siding with the regime in Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt.

Saudi policy also has implications for Israel and the Palestinians. Palestinian Prime Minister Rami Hamdallah recently visited Riyadh to mobilize Saudi financial aid after Israel froze the transfer of Palestinian tax money. There were also reports that Qatar had expelled Hamas leader Khaled Mashal, which the Israeli Foreign Ministry welcomed.

A few months ago there was even a commentary in the London-based Saudi-owned Arabic newspaper Al-Sharq Al-Awsat, which stated that there is actually no more conflict between Israel and the Arabs. But such an article, and even a convergence of interests between Israel and Saudi Arabia, cannot obscure the deep, ideological Saudi hostility towards Israel. This hostility was expressed, for example, when Prince Nayef - the heir to the throne who died in 2012 - accused Israel at the time of being behind the September 11 attacks in the United States.

Danny Rubinstein lectures on Arab issues at Ben Gurion University and Hebrew University, and is a columnist on Palestinian economic issues at Calcalist.

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