Iran Talks Closer on One-Year Nuclear ‘Breakout’ Demand

MONTREUX, Switzerland—Iran and six major powers are nearing an understanding that a final nuclear deal must be structured around the U.S. demand that Tehran stay at least a year away from amassing enough fuel for a nuclear weapon, according to people familiar with the negotiations.

The understanding about Iran’s so-called breakout time, if it can be nailed down as part of a broader package, could open the way to a final nuclear agreement in coming weeks, diplomats say, even as they warned again on Wednesday that difficult obstacles to a deal remain.

The breakout period has been one of the talks’ critical questions. Last year, negotiations bogged down over Iran’s refusal to accept steps that would constrain its nuclear activities enough to meet the U.S. goal.

In the end, the deadline for talks had to be rolled over twice, feeding skepticism in Washington and Tehran about whether a deal was possible.

In recent weeks, however, people familiar with the talks say Iran’s position is shifting. While there is no explicit agreement on the 12-month breakout period, officials say there is a growing understanding on all sides that it must be part of a deal.

Critically, some officials say, Iran has also accepted that in order to achieve that, it will have to agree to a reduction in the nearly 10,000 centrifuges it now operates and cut its enriched-uranium production.

The narrowing of gaps on this principle, and other potential compromises, have helped encourage a shift in sentiment among diplomats in recent weeks that a nuclear deal is finally possible after more than a decade of talks.

Last week, U.S. officials acknowledged that Iran may be able to start scaling up its nuclear activities in the later years of an accord. Diplomats have long said Iran has also signaled it would agree to ship its stockpile of enriched uranium out of the country, a move that would also lengthen its breakout period.

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