Iran hardliners try to undermine Rouhani as nuclear deal nears

FT.com

As hopes grow that Iran may be close to securing a nuclear deal, hardliners in the Islamic republic are trying to undermine the president, Hassan Rouhani, who they fear is poised to benefit politically from his successful steering of negotiations with the world’s major powers.

Moderate forces led by the centrist Mr Rouhani played a crucial role in softening the stance of Iran’s supreme leader and ultimate decision maker Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on the nuclear issue. If a deal is secured and sanctions are lifted, support for Mr Rouhani and moderate politicians in general could grow before next year’s parliamentary elections, a prospect that alarms hardliners.

Analysts and western diplomats say Iran and the so-called P5+1 group — the US, UK, France, Russia, China and Germany — have made significant progress in the latest round of meetings in Switzerland. The two sides have pledged to secure a consensus by the end of March, which could lead to a comprehensive deal by July.

“One of the biggest concerns of fundamentalists is that a national hero should not emerge from the reformist camp for putting an end to the nuclear dilemma,” Mohammad-Sadegh Javadi-Hesar, a reformist politician said. “Fundamentalists do not want people to ever think that moderate and reformist groups prevented a big crisis.”

The results of the next parliamentary election are crucial for Mr Rouhani, who frequently faces criticism from the conservative-dominated assembly which has the power to impeach ministers or even the president as well as block legislation. Legislators have criticised the president’s approach on the nuclear talks and also his attempts to open up debate in universities and more broadly in society. By scuppering Mr Rouhani’s moderate agenda, hardliners in parliament hope to disillusion his supporters and weaken his support base ahead of presidential elections in 2017.

As part of attempts to undermine the president and reformist politicians in general, the judiciary has threatened domestic media that publish pictures or write stories about Mohammad Khatami (pictured below), a former reformist president and the architect of protests following the disputed election of 2009.

The judiciary is also expected to find Mehdi Hashemi, a son of Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a former president, guilty of corruption. Both former presidents mobilised people to vote for Mr Rouhani in 2013. At the same time, hardliners have banned concerts by singers such as Ali Reza Ghorbani, a traditional singer, and stopped women from playing in an orchestra — all moves seen as undermining Mr Rouhani.

As hardliners strategise ahead of the elections, former president Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad has also indicated he is considering a return to politics. Few take him seriously, given he has fallen foul of the regime for showing disloyalty to Ayatollah Khamenei.

A recent official visit to Turkey was interpreted as an attempt to disillusion moderate supporters, reminding them of the power hardliners still hold and Mr Rouhani’s inability to curb their power.

Mr Ahmadi-Nejad’s eight year rule is associated with international hostility, sanctions and a swath of populist policies which ruined the economy. Recent disclosures indicate that corruption under the former president was unprecedented in the country’s history.

Indeed, Mr Ahmadi-Nejad’s mismanagement of the economy was one of the reasons Ayatollah Khamenei throw his strong backing behind nuclear talks, warning hardliners not to interfere with negotiations.

But while the supreme leader freed Mr Rouhani’s hands on nuclear policy, he allowed the hardliners to keep their tight grip on domestic politics, hence the current attempts to undermine the centrist president. Now hardliners are determined to stop Mr Rouhani using any nuclear deal as a platform to to gain majority in the next parliament.

“Even western powers know that any nuclear agreement can happen only thanks to the guidance of the supreme leader,” said Hamid-Reza Taraghi, a conservative politician. “The winner of any deal will be the Islamic Republic not reformists who wanted to surrender to western powers and give up the whole nuclear programme.”