Iran's Stockholm syndrome?

For those who participated the anti-government protests of 2009-11, the sprawling squares of central Tehran evoke poignant memories. Near the 45-meter “freedom tower” in Azadi Square, often the centre of the 2009 demonstrations, is where Golnar, 59, uttered muffled prayers as a gang of Basiji shattered the windows of the basement where she and a handful of fellow protesters hid to avoid arrest. A kilometre to the east, in Enghelab Square near Tehran University, 31-year-old Amir Hossein recalls saving a woman from assault by throwing bits of pavement at the uniformed men dragging her across the street. And when Houshang, 30, drives by the cinema in nearby Vali-e-Asr Square, he describes witnessing a riot police van crush a protester to death.

Over five years since the disputed re-election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad sparked a year-and-a-half-long wave of pro-democracy protests, little physical evidence remains to remind demonstrators of their one-time zeal. The spiralling economic situation and the repressive political atmosphere of the late Ahmadinejad era disappointed hopes of a democratic opening. The election of moderate President Hassan Rouhani absorbed the millions of reform-minded voters who boycotted previous elections back into the political system, but many say the new government has so far failed to deliver on its promises of social change.

On 14 February, Green Movement supporters marked four years since their symbolic leaders, former Prime Minister Mir Hossein Mousavi, former Majles speaker Mehdi Karroubi, and Mousavi’s wife Zahra Rahnavard were arrested by Iranian intelligence officers, sparking a violent protest that coincided with pro-democracy demonstrations in Tunisia and Egypt. After the disappointments of the last few years, there is concern among Iran’s pro-democratic forces that the energy generated in the wake of the 2009 protests has been sapped from society. Many accuse Rouhani of lacking a serious plan for political change, and claim that reformists, chafing under continuous pressure from Iran’s leadership, have failed to present their own plan for moving forward.
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“It’s natural to get depressed when you have these ideals and they don’t pan out for whatever reason,” admits Anahita, 27, who says she attended all but one of the Green Movement protests in 2009-2011. “Five years ago we were in the streets and we had big dreams that didn’t come true….I don’t feel any particular energy within me at the moment that would compel me to go to Akhtar Street [where Mousavi is being held] and shout in protest. The right moment has to come, and it’s not here yet.”

In a controversial speech shared by tens of thousands on social media, prominent sociology professor Yousef Abazari said Iranian society underwent a change in the relationship between the people and the government in the aftermath of the 2009 protests - a mechanism he terms “identification with the aggressor.”

“What is happening is that this government is trying to reach out to people who have become totally disenchanted with politics,” Abazari says. “By means of this mechanism the government and the people can become one, and neither threatens the other.”

Opposition actors argue that grassroots energy still exists, even if the repressive atmosphere post-2009 prevented the formation of an organised movement. “If there is stagnation, it’s in terms of political action and in institutions like political parties and civil society organisations, but not intellectually or spiritually,” says Hossein Naqashi, a former student activist and current managing editor at the Iranian Student Correspondents Network.

Some activists are looking to next year’s parliamentary elections as a way through the political morass. They hope that giving popular backing to reformist and moderate candidates would diminish fundamentalists’ influence in the Majles. These candidates could include prominent politicians like former reformist President Mohammad Khatami or the pragmatist Hashemi Rafsanjani, as well as the heads of political groupings like the Islamic Iran Participation Front (IIPF), the Association of Combatant Clerics and the Mojahedin of the Islamic Revolution.

Critics warn that powerful conservative factions will co-opt these candidates to sway the popular vote in their own political favour. If the Green Movement throws its weight behind these candidates, it would only serve conservative political interests. “I doubt that the Green Movement can really influence the outcome of the Majles elections because they won’t have any viable candidates,” a Tehran-based political journalist told Tehran Bureau.

A precondition for increasing the movement’s activities ahead of the Majles elections is the success of the nuclear negotiations, says an IIPF member who was jailed after the 2009 protests. Achieving a nuclear deal and addressing the public’s grievances regarding the sanctions-plagued economy will increase the Rouhani government’s power on the domestic front, encouraging latent pro-democracy forces to publicly voice their grievances. “The Green Movement will only show its power when the government isn’t in a position to suppress them,” the IIPF member says.

Many of the factors determining the Green Movement’s future viability are taking place beyond the country’s borders. The belligerence of the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq , where Iran is actively supporting anti-Isis fighters, has strengthened conservative politicians in Iran at the expense of the opposition. “We have a group of bloodthirsty maniacs approaching our western border who want to destroy Iran. That’s terrifying,” a Tehran University sociologist told Tehran Bureau. “This fear is an impediment to the radical impulse because street clashes or political instability would mean a loss of security. Egypt, Syria, Libya, all are dealing with serious growing pains in the aftermath of their democratic revolutions. All of this has an adverse effect on the Green Movement and has decreased overall motivation.”

The current atmosphere has also emboldened the conservatives, who are keen to prevent reformist factions from rising to their one-time political prominence ahead of the Majles election. Last month, the Tehran chief prosecutor banned all high-circulation media in the capital from publishing news items about Khatami, who had previously backed the gatherings of several reformist political groupings. While any newspaper that violated the ban faced closure, Khatami’s supporters protested the action on social media. The Tehran University sociologist interpreted this spontaneous action as a sign of the Green Movement’s future potential. “In just 24 hours, 30,000 people joined a Facebook page entitled ‘We are the Khatami media,” he says. “Is this a dead movement?”

The Guardian