Tuesday 14 July 2015

Gartman: Here’s the real winner from Iran deal talks

Michael Newberg

Crude oil closed lower on Monday as speculation about a nuclear deal with Iran left some traders worried about additional supply to the market. But while the slide in oil prices has intensified in recent weeks, Dennis Gartman of "The Gartman Letter" says there's one group that stands to benefit heavily from a deal with Iran.

"The tankers seem to be something that nobody is paying a great deal of attention to," Gartman said on CNBC's "Fast Money" on Monday. "I think that owning tankers makes sense."

A number of tanker stocks have already seen big gains this year. Names like Teekay Tankers, Nordic American and Scorpio Tankers have all vastly outperformed the market, with Nordic American leading the pack, up by more than 50 percent. Those moves sit in sharp contrast with the price action in oil, which remains down on the year.

Gartman said that while he likes the tankers, he doesn't see any reason to be bullish of crude oil right now. Citing supply concerns, Gartman said there's an abundance of crude in the market, and "there's more coming."

He contends that Iran "has every intention of pumping as much oil as they can."

"Back in the 1970s and early '80s, Iran was producing about 6 million barrels of crude oil per day," he said. "Now, they're back to about 4.5 million. They will get 6 million barrels over the course of the next two years."

Gartman said there are already 40 to 50 tankers storing oil in the Indian Ocean and the Persian Gulf. According to his logic, the addition of even more oil into the global market will increase the need for storage, thereby benefiting the tanker companies.




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