Russia’s Syria build-up takes Iran by surprise

The US is not the only country puzzled by Moscow’s recent military build- up in Syria. The leaders of Iran, supporters of Damascus alongside Russia, are also scratching their heads about President Vladimir Putin’s intentions.

Tehran and Moscow have supported Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad, since an anti-regime uprising that erupted in 2011 changed into a mult-sided civil war that has seen at least 250,000 killed and displaced about half of the country’s 22m inhabitants.

But the decision by the Kremlin to deploy fighter jets and surface-to-air missiles inside Syria, and the subsequent US announcement last week that it welcomed a role for Russia and Iran in bringing Mr Assad to the negotiating table, have baffled Iranian officials.

“There are concerns in Iran that Russia intends to leave us behind and become the key to finding a solution for Syria in co-operation with the US,” said one regime insider, who added that Russia “has reassured us that this is not their intention”.

Tehran has not commented publicly on Moscow’s reinforcement of its military presence in the war-torn country and is unlikely to upset a key ally, despite concerns about its ultimate aims.

“Russia is seeking to stabilise its position in the Middle East,” the regime insider said. “But Iran will not be led by Russia if this is what they are seeking.”

Major General Qassem Soleimani, head of foreign military operations for Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, recently travelled to Moscow to discuss Syria with Russian officials, according to the insider, but no details have been made public. Iran’s deputy foreign minister for Arab affairs, Hossein Amir Abdollahian, was also in Moscow on Tuesday, and said that the two countries had “consensus on the solution and the details of how to help resolve” the Syrian crisis.

For the centrist government of President Hassan Rouhani and his foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, analysts say, co-operation with the US and Russia over Syria is a natural way to extend its geopolitical influence after the breakthrough nuclear agreement with the world powers.

Iranian leaders have long pursued an unspoken policy of keeping conflict with their enemies, notably Israel, away from the country’s borders. Hizbollah, the Lebanese Shia militant group, is the key proxy force for maintaining this policy and Syria is a vital route for providing it with weapons.

While nobody challenges this policy, moderate forces in the government of Mr Rouhani believe it can be best achieved by putting diplomacy in the forefront, supported by a strong military force. This puts them at odds with hardliners in the regime.

“There is consensus that we are able to expand our interest in the region, but there are differences on approaches and whether Iran should have a diplomatic or military image,” said a former senior Iranian diplomat who advises a top decision-making body. “Now we have an exceptional opportunity after the US for the first time said Iran can play a role in Syria after it realised that other regional countries, notably Saudi Arabia, cannot act as a catalyst, but Iran can.”

Iran’s supreme leader and ultimate decision maker, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has yet to make clear how far the country’s diplomats can go in talks with world powers on Syria. Analysts expect him to wait until he has a clearer image of where Iran’s interests lie.

The main sticking point, however, remains the fate of Mr Assad. A senior western diplomat said Iranian officials privately stress that Mr Assad should remain in power, as Iran cannot afford to let Syria out of its orbit.

However, the former diplomat said this could change and Tehran could be flexible if there was an acceptable alternative.

“Iran can and will play a very good role to help resolve the Syrian crisis,” he said. “Iran will be a good link between US and Russia and will not be overshadowed by Russia’s military intervention.”

The Financial Times Limited 2015