Leader’s New Letter to Rouhani; What is Ayatollah Khamenei Afraid Of?

The letter that ayatollah Khamenei sent to Hassan Rouhani last week about the nuclear agreement indicates the same important issue: Ayatollah Khamenei’s fears of the outcome of increased contacts between Iran and America.

Iran’s top leader, who in the past has repeatedly and on many occasions issued warnings against greater contacts and relations between Tehran and Washington, raises the same points again in his latest letter to the president of Iran, Hassan Rouhani. For example, he refers to two letters written by the president of the United States and writes, “The remarks of the president in two letters to me indicating that the US is not after toppling the Islamic republic quickly turned otherwise by its support for the domestic seditions and financial assistance to opponents of the Islamic republic and even included express threats including military ones, which unveiled the true intentions of American leaders.”

In another part of the same letter, ayatollah Khamenei writes about the “hostile intentions” and “hostile goals” of the American government against the Islamic republic.

Towards the end of the letter, he further writes, “Be watchful so that after the sanctions are lifted the situation does not turn into uncontrolled imports, and especially imports of any consumer goods from America should be seriously refrained.”

This view is in addition to the expressions of distrust expressed by Iran’s leader for the government of the United States in this important letter sent to the president and head of the national security council, issues that have been expressed in the past as well.

Relations With America and Two Meaningful Warnings

The points mentioned above are not new and have been made by ayatollah Khamenei in the past as well, including those made in recent months (when the first framework agreement and finally the comprehensive ones were reached). For example in a speech in August this year to the members of the Experts Assembly on Leadership, ayatollah Khamenei had mentioned the July 14 nuclear agreement and said, “Among the things they say, to which we are sensitive, is that the JCPOA has created opportunities for America inside Iran and also outside it and in the region. This is what the Americans are saying. My message to our friends in the government and in various official posts is that they should absolutely not allow such opportunism inside the country to America. Outside Iran too, you should strive to not provide America with such opportunities. We have announced that we are not going to talk to Americans about anything other than the nuclear issue. We have said this to our foreign policy officials and to others. And the reason is that their direction is exactly at odds with ours. We view things 180 degrees to each other.”

What is the Leader of Iran Afraid Of?

The above quoted remarks, and many others, make it clear that ayatollah Khamenei is afraid of greater relations between Tehran and Washington. The absence of democratic foundations in the regime is foundation of the fear of the top leadership.

Khamenei is aware of the wide difference between the desires of the majority of Iranians and the realities of the regime and its political-ideological agenda, and therefore tries to prevent the strengthening of civil society, and in the realm of foreign policy, the strengthening of relations between Iran and America, along with its cultural, economic and social consequences by misusing the institutional levers of power in the country. He is afraid that the crisis of control and hegemony may tangle the regime and bring about uncontrollable events.

Regardless of the link that the ideology of the leadership and hardliners have created with the “Death to America” chant – through which all blame and problems and crises are attributed to the “enemy” (which is American imperialism), the supreme leader strives to stop people, and specifically civil society, from gaining power and from presenting its democratic demands, on the pretext that they carry Western values. It is not without reason that he talks of “the enormous propaganda machinery in the hands of America” and warns even about American cultural influence.

If Iran was run by a national government which believed in responding to people’s views and especially the demands of the political-social majority, the rulers would not be afraid of talks with any foreign power. But a regime that is not representative of the nation and does not have a democratic basis or support – led by ayatollah Khamenei – is so insecure that it not only asks the president of the United States not to take any steps to change it but goes beyond that and even asks for security guarantees for its survival. At the same time, the leaders of Iran’s largest social movement today (Mousavi, Karoubi and Rahnavard) remain under house arrest for years, where they have been put without any sort of trial, even the facetious ones that the regime showcases, as civil society is perpetually threatened through various means.

Add to all of this the heightened sensitivity that the leader of the Islamic republic has acquired about the slightest improvement in the relations of the regime with the West (and the US in particular) which he fears will impact the political structure of the regime. Hassan Rouhani’s ascent to the presidency and his promotion of détente and improved relations with the world, has actually strengthened the supporters of dialog with the world but has added to the leader’s fears. The view that calls and strives for better relations with the world through moderation has received support, and veteran politician and political player Hashemi Rafsanjani’s being one of them.

This is why Khamenei’s warnings against relations with the United States have intensified recently, revealing other socio-political realities. And this view is also reflected in ayatollah Khamenei’s most recent letter to Rouhani where he states, “With decades of experience and presence in the issues of the Islamic republic, you most certainly know that the attitude of the government of the United States of America regarding the nuclear or any other issue, has been no other than animosity and sabotage, and in the future too it is doubtful it will be any different.” The leader wants the president to not even import any goods from the US.

From the perspective of the supreme leader of the regime, improvement in relations with the West (and especially with Washington) mean the “transformation of the political regime” along with gradual and inevitable change. This is why and how he remains so fearful and tries to add all sorts of whistles and bells for the implementation of the nuclear deal, especially on issues related to the United States.

A government that enjoys self-confidence based on democratic foundations will sit at any negotiation’s table to represent the national interest of the country. The problem that Khamenei and his anti-democracy military-security aides have is not confined to non-national and unrealistic political-ideological projects. The major part of the problem they have is the absence of the authority of democracy and the lack of self-confidence that comes because of this absence.

http://www.roozonline.com/english/opinion/opinion-article/archive/2015/october/26/article/leaders-new-letter-to-rouhani-what-is-ayatollah-khamenei-afraid-of.html