Iran’s dangerous mind games

On July 14 President Obama announced a “comprehensive, long-term deal with Iran that will prevent it from obtaining a nuclear weapon.” The deal, he said, “is not built on trust; it is built on verification.”

But Iran is showing that it prefers ambiguity over trust as it prepares to meet the terms of that nuclear deal, and as it ramps up its anti-Western rhetoric and its military activity in the Middle East.

Iran’s mind games with the verification agency and the United Nations could nullify the intended benefit to the world community — a reduced risk of war in the Middle East.

The deal requires close cooperation by Iran with the United Nations’ International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). That looks increasingly unlikely.

The deadline for Iran to come clean about its suspected past research into the manufacture of nuclear warheads arrives tomorrow. Earlier this month the IAEA released a draft of its report on how Iran has responded to questions about “outstanding issues,” and gave Tehran a flunking grade.

According to The New York Times, the report said Iran refused to answer several essential questions and appeared to have destroyed potential evidence in others. Nevertheless, the agency said it was confident that Iran has worked on the design of a nuclear warhead over a number of years and as recently as 2009.

But Iran’s leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has said repeatedly that Iran is forbidden by its religious beliefs from acquiring nuclear weapons. President Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry have repeated the ayatollah’s pledge as a talking point in favor of the agreement.

The IAEA report suggests that the ayatollah’s peaceful intentions have been badly overstated. But, because of Iran’s refusal to cooperate, the agency could not say whether Iran had mastered the design of a nuclear weapon.

Iran has also insisted that international inspectors may not have free access to the military research facilities where such studies appear to have taken place, and it is likely to maintain such restrictions.

Meanwhile, saying its military activities are not subject to international control, Iran recently tested medium range missiles in violation of a U.N. Security Council resolution.

Even so, these efforts by Iran to create uncertainty about its capabilities and intentions do not violate the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, and that is a major weakness of the agreement. Secretary of State John Kerry said Dec. 4 that nobody in the Obama administration “has had any doubts whatsoever about Iran’s past military endeavors. From the get-go, we have consistently said we know that Iran was pursuing a nuclear project.”

In other words, Mr. Kerry knew all along that Iran’s leader was being deceptive, but decided not to confront him about it in hopes of getting a verifiable agreement on Iran’s peaceful nuclear activities.

That was a risky decision, and it could backfire.

Iran’s refusal to discuss the past and its continued development of missiles that only become an effective threat if they have nuclear warheads is bound to alarm those Mideast nations worried about Iran’s aggressive behavior.

Some wealthy nations, like Saudi Arabia, may decide to follow Iran’s example and develop the capacity to make nuclear weapons without publicly declaring the intent to do so. That could lead to nuclear proliferation in a very unsettled region. And Israel is unlikely to be persuaded that it can trust a wealthier though still aggressive Iran. These are the outcomes the Iran deal is supposed to avoid.

So far the agreement has done nothing to dispel that apprehension and dread.

Nor has Iran.

http://www.postandcourier.com/article/20151214/PC1002/151219729/1022/iran-x2019-s-dangerous-mind-games