Will the Iran nuclear deal kill Louisiana jobs?

Every deal has winners and losers. When it comes to the Iran nuclear deal, analysts say Louisiana is falling on the losing side.

How does an agreement to freeze a nuclear program on the other side of the world affect Louisiana? Look no further than oil prices.

The price of oil slid below $28 last week after major powers lifted international sanctions on Iran, and officials in Tehran promptly called on the country's oil industry to ramp up production.

Iran says it's ready to add as much as 500,000 barrels a day to its output, a move that is expected to worsen a global oil glut that has dragged prices down to their lowest mark in 13 years.

Don Briggs, president of the Louisiana Oil and Gas Association, said a flood of Iranian oil means prices could stay lower for far longer than expected. Briggs said a surge in Iranian oil could stretch out the downturn another six months to a year.

Prolonged low prices mean eroding tax revenues and more layoffs in the state's oil and gas industry, he said.

"It is going to have a devastating impact on the state budget," Briggs said. "There's nothing about it that's good news."

Global oil supply is historically high, driven by record production in the U.S. and steady output from Saudi Arabia and other OPEC countries.

The U.S. saw its oil production nearly double from 2011 to 2014 thanks to the country's shale drilling boom. Oil prices began to collapse in late 2014.

Louisiana's mining and logging sector, which includes the oil and gas industry, lost 11,600 jobs from July 2014 to November last year. As of December, state oil and gas severance tax revenues were down 43 percent.

Eric Smith, a professor at Tulane University and associate director of the Tulane Energy Center, agreed prolonged low oil prices hurt Louisiana's budget and kill jobs. But he is skeptical the Iranians can ramp up oil production quickly enough to send immediate shock waves through the regional economy.

Many analysts doubt Iran will be able to meet its production promises. The U.S. Energy Information Administration predicts the country will add about 300,000 barrels a day in 2016, below the 500,000 mark.

"It strikes me as a bit optimistic that they're going to be flooding the world with oil anytime soon," Smith said.

Richard Metcalf, director of environmental affairs for the Louisiana Mid-Continent Oil and Gas Association, noted oil prices reflect a wide range of global factors. More Iranian oil is just one of those, he said.

"It will keep prices suppressed, but what does suppressed mean? And for how long?" Metcalf asked. "If I knew that, I'd be in the stock market."

Metcalf said a lot depends on how much money Iran wants to make on the oil it sells. Louisiana will hurt even more if Iran prices its oil below the $30 market rate, he said.

"They can sell very cheaply and still make money," he said.

In the end, the only way to ease the oil glut is to stop producing, he said. Producers in the U.S. and in OPEC countries have yet to put on the brakes.

"It is a game of chicken to some degree," Metcalf said.

Not all of Louisiana's oil and gas industry is hurting. Most of the layoffs are coming from what the industry calls "downstream" -- the rig workers, engineers, equipment suppliers and others that support drilling work offshore and onshore.

Smith noted Louisiana refineries are seeing higher profits and "running pretty much flat out" right now. Prices for gasoline typically fall slower than prices for crude oil, which means refineries are enjoying the highest profit margins seen in years.

"The story is always a bit nuanced," Smith said.

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