Thursday 17 October 2013

Let's make a deal: Israel freezes settlements, Iran freezes centrifuges

Haaretz

There is no need for a crystal ball to see what the future may bring in Israel-Palestine in the next year. Courageous U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry is working determinedly toward a permanent agreement, which he intends on achieving in the spring or summer of 2014.

Skeptical Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is unable to make the necessary concessions to reach a permanent agreement. Suspicious Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is unwilling to make the necessary concessions to reach a permanent agreement. Sooner or later, it seems the process will reach a dead end.

It is certainly possible that the Americans will put a compulsory offer on the table, which will bring both the Israelis and also the Palestinians to the moment of truth. But one way or another, the two leaders will run away from the truth. The expected result is a serious crisis. The probability that in another year former senator Kerry will be the new winner of the Nobel Peace Prize is quite low. The probability that he will become a bitter accuser is high. Someone who came to save the two-state solution may very well become the grave-digger for the two-state solution.

There is no need for a crystal ball to see that the future likely to develop between the United States and Iran in the next year. In Washington, they want to see Rohani's Tehran as the new Beijing: openness, dialogue and moderation accompanied by charming ping-pong diplomacy. In Tehran they want to see Obama's Washington as if it was Clinton's Washington: the one that allowed North Korea to slip over the nuclear threshold. Therefore, there is a high likelihood that the Iranians and Americans will reach an agreement, written or unwritten, that will be convenient for both sides.

America will receive a smiling Iran that progresses in its nuclear program in a sophisticated fashion, gradually and without defiance. Iran will receive a friendly America, one that will allow it to become, with a slight delay, an intimidating nuclear power. And only Zion will not have a savior. In becoming a sort of irascible Taiwan, Israel will face the dilemma of its life: to admit that it suffered an embarrassing failure against Iran, or to launch an attack on Iran that the world will view as insane.

True, surprises are always possible. Maybe at the last minute Kerry will recover and switch the utopian diplomatic framework for a realistic one. Maybe at the last minute Tehran will make some mistake that will cause Washington to wake up from its illusion and the West will gird its loins and stand resolutely against Iran. But as of now, Israel is in a double whirlpool. On one side it is being lead to the Palestinian slaughterhouse, and on the other side it is being lead to the Iranian slaughterhouse. Israel is being defeated at the very same time on both the diplomatic front and also on the strategic front. While still enjoying the golden autumn sun of October, the Jewish state has fallen into a diplomatic-strategic situation of unrivaled danger.

When Israel was in distress a decade ago, it did something: the disengagement from Gaza. To head off the threat of tightening international isolation, Israel initiated a daring step that changed everything and rescued the country. Now the trouble is doubled and redoubled, and therefore the actions must be double and quadruple. The truth that Netanyahu repeated time after time in his speech is not enough. The justice he claims time after time behind closed doors is also not enough. An ambitious initiative of “freeze-freeze” is needed.

A complete freeze of construction in the settlements beyond the separation line, and a complete freeze of the centrifuges spinning; a freeze of the Israeli settlement enterprise, and a freeze of the Iranian nuclear program. Each of these suspensions is required in its own area. Each of these suspensions is essential to distance the darkening red line. But the combination of the two is a winning combination.

It will return legitimacy and international consideration to Israel, and remove the immediate threats of a binational state and a nuclear Iran. If Herzl or Churchill were with us today, they would not wait for the evil to arrive and talk about the evil; they would go out into the open to contend with the evil and repel it.




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