Impasse Over Iran’s Nuclear Program

With top leaders attending the United Nations General Assembly, this is the moment to break the logjam on a comprehensive deal limiting Iran’s nuclear program. But so far there has been no real sign of movement, much less a breakthrough, despite negotiations among Secretary of State John Kerry; Iran’s foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif; and Catherine Ashton, the European negotiator. The fault lies mainly with Iran.

Both sides are publicly committed to a deal, whose original July deadline was extended to Nov. 24. President Hassan Rouhani of Iran denounced Western-led sanctions in a speech to the General Assembly but reiterated his wish to resolve the dispute with the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China. President Obama, in his speech, put the onus on Iran, warning that a deal can happen only “if Iran seizes this historic opportunity.”

The negotiators have made progress on several issues, strengthening inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency to guard against Iran’s pursuing a secret weapons program and modifying the Arak heavy-water reactor to cut its plutonium output. The biggest stumbling block has been and remains how much enriched uranium Iran would be allowed to continue producing. Israel and its hard-line allies in Congress want to end the enriched uranium program altogether. Mr. Obama and the other big powers have said that Iran can keep a limited program for research purposes.

The caveat is that the program must be structured so that Iran cannot one day make a dash to build a nuclear weapon without the world having enough warning to intervene. The big powers want to reduce Iran’s enrichment capacity so that it would take a year or more to produce enough weapons grade material for one nuclear bomb.

The Iranians have 19,000 centrifuge machines, which are central to the enrichment process; 10,200 of them are operating. While the Americans have proposed cutting the number of operating centrifuges to around 1,500 or so, the Iranians have insisted on many thousands more than the 19,000. This would give them an industrial-size capacity to produce the enriched uranium they say they need to fuel nuclear energy reactors, like one at Bushehr. But that is not cost-effective and, further, Iran does not need such capacity; Russia is providing fuel for Bushehr and can do so indefinitely.
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daylily1111
3 hours ago

Iran has learned from experience that it cannot rely on an outside source for its needed enriched uranium: it has a 10% or so stock of the...
Thinker
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"Remember that we know, and have admitted many times, that there has been no nuclear weapons program in Iran since at least 2003."This is...
Occupy Government
4 hours ago

US and UK meddling in the Mideast is older than Israel. Perhaps if the West's foreign policy had been more circumspect -- something other...

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For Iran, this is more about politics and saving face than about real needs. The nuclear program has cost billions of dollars and is a source of great national pride. Having spent years insisting on its right to have such a program, Iran has been unwilling to eliminate any centrifuges because it fears it would look weak. Iran deserves credit for honoring an interim accord that is already curbing production. But refusing to budge on the centrifuges invites doubts about its claims to not want a nuclear weapon.

Proposals under discussion could be the basis for a win-win compromise. There were reports Friday that the Americans were considering letting Iran keep 4,500 operating centrifuges instead of 1,500. Other ideas include disabling centrifuges by disconnecting pipes and replacing Iran’s older operating centrifuges with a smaller number of advanced centrifuges.

Mr. Rouhani and Mr. Zarif have brought negotiations to this point. Now Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, must decide if he has the courage to defy the forces in his country who will always see America as an enemy and let his negotiators bring a deal to a close. That would allow sanctions to be lifted and unfetter Iran to grow economically, shed its diplomatic isolation and, ideally, become a more constructive participant in regional affairs.