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Sunday 16 November 2014Q&A: How likely is a nuclear deal with Iran?FT.com The diplomatic wrangle to prevent Iran from building a nuclear weapon has just days to run. On Tuesday, officials from Iran and the so-called P5+1 – the permanent members of the security council plus Germany – will meet in Vienna in an effort to hammer out a final and lasting agreement to curb Tehran’s nuclear programme in exchange for the rollback of the international sanctions that have crippled the Islamic republic’s economy. They will have only six days to finalise terms: November 24 is the official deadline for a deal, and comes nearly a year after the landmark interim deal in Geneva last year . But the prospects for success are considered low: many of the core issues are still unresolved. What does the P5+1 want? Anything else? And what does Iran want? Are the chances of a deal any better than six months ago? But ... ? Can it be done? So far the attitude from the US has been minimalist: to “let Iran have a bit more of its own money back”, as one diplomat says, referring to frozen bank accounts. But if Iran is to accede to cuts to its number of centrifuges even approaching the drop from 19,000 to 6,000 that has been hoped for, it may now dictate something more meaningful from the P5+1. As a result, most experts doubt, on balance, that a final comprehensive arrangement – something that will endure for years to come – can possibly be agreed by next Monday. “It’s a fairly low probability – I’d say a 30 per cent possibility,” says Mark Fitzpatrick, director of non-proliferation studies at the think-tank IISS. Mr Fitzpatrick says that perhaps a broad agreement could be reached, but at least another six months may be needed to iron out details. But while chances may be slim, they are better than they were: in May, Mr Fitzpatrick put the chances of success at less than one in 10. The real question will be what happens if an agreement is not reached. Negotiators may be inching closer to a deal, but there is a danger that their political masters in Washington and Tehran could pull back from one in the coming months. |