Sunday 16 November 2014

Q&A: How likely is a nuclear deal with Iran?

FT.com

The diplomatic wrangle to prevent Iran from building a nuclear weapon has just days to run. On Tuesday, officials from Iran and the so-called P5+1 – the permanent members of the security council plus Germany – will meet in Vienna in an effort to hammer out a final and lasting agreement to curb Tehran’s nuclear programme in exchange for the rollback of the international sanctions that have crippled the Islamic republic’s economy.

They will have only six days to finalise terms: November 24 is the official deadline for a deal, and comes nearly a year after the landmark interim deal in Geneva last year . But the prospects for success are considered low: many of the core issues are still unresolved.

What does the P5+1 want?
Above all, to amend Iran’s “breakout time” – the time it would take for its nuclear engineers to enrich enough uranium to a sufficient degree for a viable nuclear weapon. Iran is estimated currently to have a six-month breakout time. The P5+1 is likely to require a breakout time of between nine and 12 months. This is dependent on the size and level of enrichment of the existing uranium stockpile; the number of Iranian centrifuges in operation; how many centrifuges Tehran can bring quickly into operation and how efficient a new generation of advanced centrifuges might be.

Anything else?
A host of other issues related to the breakout time requirement, including the transparency of Iran’s nuclear facilities – the more monitoring and supervision Iran grants, the more comfortable the P5+1 may be with a shorter breakout time; resolution on Iran’s plutonium-producing Arak reactor, and a range of unresolved historic research projects known as “possible military dimensions” to the country’s nuclear programme which the International Atomic Energy Authority is suspicious of.

And what does Iran want?
Sanctions relief. Growing economic hardship is prompting Tehran to negotiate, say observers. Iran wants to begin exporting its oil again; it also wants to be reconnected to the international financial system – and to unfreeze the billions of dollars of its own money held in foreign accounts. But almost equally importantly, Iran needs some recognition of its nuclear programme. “The Iranians also need a narrative of victory to sell a painful deal to their population,” says Cliff Kupchan, Iran director and chairman of the Eurasia Group.

Are the chances of a deal any better than six months ago?
Yes ... and no. Over the past year, there have been no “Aha!” moments but technical talks are thought to have made progress of sorts. The discussions are likely to have involved intricate changes to Iran’s reactor designs, so that they do not require or produce fuel that can be easily refined into bomb material, and the possibility of Iran shipping its entire existing uranium stockpile to Russia for conversion into fuel rods.

But ... ?
Recent events have complicated matters. One P5+1 diplomat familiar with the October discussions said that some of the “creative” technical avenues suggested have proved less attractive after they have been pored over by nuclear experts. The falling oil price has made it more important for Iran to secure meaningful and rapid sanctions relief. While the US has been unwilling to unwind sanctions quickly, Republican control of the Senate will make it even harder, if not impossible to see eye-to-eye with Tehran. Meeting in Oman last week, the tone between Iran and P5+1 leaders including US secretary of state John Kerry was decidedly downbeat.

Can it be done?
The sanctions relief timeframe – the sequencing of what Iran gets, and when – could be the key to this final round of talks.

So far the attitude from the US has been minimalist: to “let Iran have a bit more of its own money back”, as one diplomat says, referring to frozen bank accounts. But if Iran is to accede to cuts to its number of centrifuges even approaching the drop from 19,000 to 6,000 that has been hoped for, it may now dictate something more meaningful from the P5+1.

As a result, most experts doubt, on balance, that a final comprehensive arrangement – something that will endure for years to come – can possibly be agreed by next Monday. “It’s a fairly low probability – I’d say a 30 per cent possibility,” says Mark Fitzpatrick, director of non-proliferation studies at the think-tank IISS. Mr Fitzpatrick says that perhaps a broad agreement could be reached, but at least another six months may be needed to iron out details. But while chances may be slim, they are better than they were: in May, Mr Fitzpatrick put the chances of success at less than one in 10.

The real question will be what happens if an agreement is not reached. Negotiators may be inching closer to a deal, but there is a danger that their political masters in Washington and Tehran could pull back from one in the coming months.




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